Edmonton weather: City will likely be spared the worst of the incoming winter storm

For the first time this season, the city has activated its extreme weather response as officials prepare for frigid temperatures to set in.

A winter storm is set to blast the province, with the worst weather outside of the Edmonton area.

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We’ll get periods of snow and possibly some ice pellets in the Edmonton area tonight and early Tuesday. It might even get a bit gusty and blowing snow could be an issue.

But...the Edmonton area will get spared the worst of a winter storm that’ll drop heavy snow in northern and western Alberta.

In the south, a blast of warm air will push temperatures near or above 0 C in areas from Red Deer southward and then those regions will get a mixture of rain, freezing rain and pockets of heavy snow this evening and overnight.

Wind gusts in the 80-90 km/h range are also likely for parts of southern Alberta.

Severe weather advisories are in effect. We have snowfall warnings (yellow) in effect for the Peace River area east to Fort McMurray. Snowfall totalling 15-30 cm is likely.

Grande Prairie isn’t under that warning as of early this morning, but they’ll get several centimetres of snow.

There’s also a snowfall warning for the mountain parks and the Icefields Parkway. Up to 15 cm is likely through those areas tonight.

Southwestern Alberta is under a wind warning (yellow) for gusts up to 100 km/h tonight.

Then...it’s (as of this morning) a winter storm watch (yellow) for areas from Red Deer southeast to Medicine Hat. That watch will likely become a warning later today as the storm system develops.

This is all thanks to a potent low-pressure system that’ll blast across the province.

Warm air will flood in across southern Alberta ahead of that system. There’s some uncertainty with just how far north that warm air will stretch. But, I don’t think it’ll make it all the way to Edmonton.

We’ll end up with an afternoon high somewhere in the -5 to -9 C range.

Behind that low-pressure system, arctic air sinks in and we’ll see temperatures falling to the mid minus teens by Tuesday afternoon in the city.

By Thursday, we’re looking at afternoon highs in the -20s in Edmonton (and mornings near -30 C).

It’s a little uncertain just how long that cold spell will last, but it will almost certainly linger through the end of the weekend.

Looking LONG range: There’s some modelling that indicates a little bit of warming early next week. But, most indications point towards temperatures remaining well below average (and below -10 C for highs) right through the next two weeks.

Here’s the forecast for Edmonton and area:

Today - Mostly cloudy.

High: -7

Tonight - Cloudy. Periods of snow, with a chance of ice pellets this evening and overnight.

1 to 4cm of snow likely.

9pm: -10

Tuesday - Cloudy with a 40% chance of light snow early in the morning, then again in the afternoon.

Temperature falling through the day.

Morning: -12

Afternoon: -15

Wednesday - Cloudy. 40% chance of snow.

Morning Low: -20

Afternoon High: -14

Thursday - Mainly sunny.

Morning Low: -23

Afternoon High: -22

Friday - Mostly cloudy. 60% chance of flurries.

Morning Low: -29

Afternoon High: -22

Saturday - Mostly cloudy.

Morning Low: -26

Afternoon High: -23