The Conservatives' advantage over the New Democrats has diminished from eight to six points in polling numbers released on the final day of the election campaign before Canadians cast their ballots.

The NDP has experienced a near-meteoric rise in the polls in recent days, surpassing the Bloc for first place in Quebec and overtaking the Liberals for second place nationally, hot on the heels of the Conservatives.

All the party leaders are in a desperate sprint to the finish as they make their final campaign stops on Sunday.

Following are the results of three-day tracking completed by Nanos Research on behalf of CTV and the Globe and Mail. (Results from March 15 in brackets)

  • Conservatives: 37 per cent (38.6 per cent)
  • New Democrats: 30.6 (19.9 per cent)
  • Liberals: 22.7 per cent (27.6 per cent)
  • Bloc Quebecois: 5.5 per cent (10.1 per cent)
  • Green Party: 3.2 per cent (3.8 per cent)

The final set of polling results by Nanos Research will be released Sunday evening, and will include the results of a larger sample gathered on Sunday.

In the Nanos Leadership Index, which tracks voters' perception of the leaders on a daily basis, NDP Leader Jack Layton's rating continued to rise, vaulting him past Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

The poll, which measures voters' opinion on the leaders on the matters of competence, trust and vision for Canada, gave Layton a 17-point lead over the Conservative leader.

Here is how the five main party leaders rank in the April 30 Leadership index: (previous day's results in parenthesis)

  • Jack Layton: 97.4 (80.5)
  • Stephen Harper: 88.0 (94.5)
  • Michael Ignatieff: 39.1 (45.2)
  • Elizabeth May: 8.7 (11.8)
  • Gilles Duceppe: 8.0 (9.5)

Regional breakdown

Regionally, the polling shows the Conservatives still leading in areas east of the Ottawa River, but with a number of races tightening up. Their strongest lead is in the Prairies, where they have the support of 60.5 per cent of those polled, followed by the NDP with 25 per cent and the Liberals trailing a distant third with 12.9 per cent.

In vote-rich Ontario the Conservatives -- with 36.3 per cent support -- are now just five percentage points ahead of the Liberals. The NDP is close behind with 27.4 per cent.

In Atlantic Canada, the three main parties are within five percentage points of each other -- considered a statistical tie. The Liberals hold a slight lead in the region with the support of 34.4 per cent of those polled, followed by the Conservatives with 32.9 per cent and the NDP with 29.1 per cent.

The New Democrats' strongest lead is in Quebec, where their unexpected rise has stunned the Bloc Quebecois.

The NDP now has the support of 37.4 per cent of those polled in Quebec, a sharp increase from March 15, when the NDP had only about 14 per cent support in the province. The Bloc, by contrast, has gone from about 38 per cent support in Quebec on March 15 to just 23.9 per cent support as the campaign winds down.

In B.C., where support for the Conservatives peaked at 50 per cent earlier in the campaign, they now have the support of 41.2 per cent of those polled.

The NDP is in second in B.C. with 34.9 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 17.9 per cent.

The Green Party's highest support is in B.C., at 5.7 per cent. That could bode well for party leader Elizabeth May who is campaigning hard for a seat in the Saanich-Gulf Islands riding. May hopes to become her party's first elected MP in the House of Commons.

When asked how they would make their decision on election day, 47.3 per cent of those polled said the choice would be based on party policies.

Another 26.5 per cent said they would vote based on the party leader, and 13.9 per cent said they would base their vote on the strength of the local candidate.

Sensational story a 'distraction'

Nik Nanos, president and CEO of Nanos Research, said recent revelations about Layton's presence at a suspicious massage parlour may have actually helped the NDP.

It emerged this week that Layton had a conversation in 1996, when he was a Toronto city councillor, with a vice squad officer after receiving a massage at a location that was considered questionable.

Both Layton and his wife, MP Olivia Chow, said nothing illicit took place and the massage was simply part of Layton's normal fitness regime.

Nanos said the storyline may have offended some voters while also distracting Layton's opponents from their core message.

"I think for some Canadians it encapsulates what's been wrong with politics in Canada -- this last minute drive-by smear," Nanos said.

"And the other thing it has done is distracted the main attack from the other parties on Jack Layton related to content -- what does it mean to vote for the New Democrats. So in a way this sensational story has sidetracked what should have been the final substantive attack to stem the Jack Layton tide we're seeing across the country."

Methodology

A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is plus-minus 2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The leadership index uses only one night's worth of interviews.