Is Canada set to feel the most ‘extreme cold on earth’?

Cold temperatures cause mist to comes off the L'Assomption River in Saint-Come, Que. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

The northeastern U.S. is expected to be blasted with a frigid mid-December, right before Christmas, according to a new forecast predicted by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) climatologist Judah Cohen.

According to a social media post Cohen wrote in November, a sub-seasonal AI model created by a team of researchers from multiple universities, predicted that “the most expansive region of most likely extreme #cold on earth stretches from the Canadian Plains to the U.S. East Coast” in the third week of December.

The use of “extreme cold on earth” has garnered the climatologist more than a few eyeballs, making everyone wonder how true the statement is.

Cohen told CTVNews.ca Friday that when climatologists use the word “extreme,” it’s in reference to conditions that are unusual for that region.

“I’m not predicting that (in the) U.S. and Canada – which is much colder – it’s going to be colder than Siberia in the next few weeks, or colder than Greenland or Antarctica,” Cohen explained. “But relative to normal, it is the most extreme.”

According to his arctic oscillation and polar vortex analysis, posted on his blog Nov. 24, “below normal temperatures” are expected to build in Western Canada, moving across Central and Eastern Canada and into the central and eastern U.S.

“During the second week of December cold air could build in Alaska and Northwestern Canada and spread south and east,” the analysis read.

According to Cohen, the forecast is based on the behaviour of the infamous polar vortex that affects the jet stream and weather patterns across the world.

When a polar vortex goes off balance or its rotation slows down, it can release icy air into lower latitudes.

“If you’re at the North Pole, outward means southward,” Cohen added. “That means into the lower latitudes – into L.A., Southern Canada, northern U.S., Europe and Asia … different times, different places.”

However, there are two kinds of polar vortex disruptions, he explained.

“This is what I refer to as a stretch pull of vortex,” Cohen said.

The vortex acts somewhat like a rubber band that can stretch and be pulled in many different directions, releasing the cold air trapped inside, he explained.

“When you get these events ... one stretch goes to Asia and the other stretch goes to North America,” Cohen said. “Canada first and then into the U.S. The cold air follows that stretching.”

These events, however, do not last for long periods, he said, adding that December could include the possibility of more “stretching” events that can create frigid temperatures across the country.

“The most intense or extreme winter weather happens with these stretching events,” Cohen said. “It’s both U.S. and Canada.”

The cold air originates in Siberia and is rushed across the pole, he noted. The same air then slides down into Canada and the U.S.

Environment Canada’s Dave Phillips told CTVNews.ca Saturday that the extreme cold air from the polar vortex, that is typically seen in late January, or early February in Canada, has indeed appeared too early.

“It just sort of sits there, and it’s very heavy air, very dense air. It pours out of the north,” Phillips said. “The centre of it is over Hudson Bay.”

The frigid, “brutal” air encouraged by a northwesterly flow from Alaska and the Yukon has settled in Canada, with no melting or precipitation, he added, having a significant impact on peoples’ day-to-day activities.

“There is going to be frostbite; there’s going to be hypothermia,” Phillips said, adding that this is not a “one-off” event.

“This is not just two or three days of cold air,” he said. “These (cold winds) are very persistent. They don’t go away.”

According to Phillips, the rest of December indicated colder than normal temperatures for most of Canada, with January and February potentially seeing more cold air in similar waves.

“The one thing that’s good news for people, it almost guarantees a white Christmas,” he said.

However, Phillips added that this is not necessarily an indication of a harsh winter season.

“It’s uncertain. It could go either way,” he said. “It could be a little warmer than normal, it could be more cold or could be in-between.”

Areas like Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Ottawa and Quebec City will experience more cold than usual in the coming couple of weeks, Phillips added.

Provinces under yellow warnings this weekend

Meanwhile, multiple regions across the country are currently under yellow warnings for snow squalls, wind and blizzards, according to Environment Canada.

In Eastern Canada, Ontario is under a “special weather statement” warning residents about “lake effect” snow that could amount to up to 15 cm of snow through Saturday afternoon.

“Roads and walkways may be difficult to navigate,” the statement read.

Parts of Quebec are under a snow squall watch, with “heavy” flurries expected along with blowing snow starting Saturday afternoon through the evening.

Visibility could be reduced to near zero, the weather agency alert said.

Areas in Western Canada, including B.C. are under a weather alert for 20 cm of snowfall expected on Saturday, tapering off towards the evening.

“Visibility will likely be reduced at times,” the alert warned.

The weather agency has cold warnings in effect for Alberta, including wind chill near -40 that is expected to reduce later in the day.

“Extreme cold puts everyone at risk,” the warnings state.

Saskatchewan residents have been issued a cold warning, as Saturday brings a wind chill of -40 in the morning.

Areas in Yukon, including Teslin and Whitehorse are under a snowfall warning through Saturday, cautioning residents about a frontal system that will bring up to 20 cm of snow.

Dempster, meanwhile, will see blizzard conditions complete with gusty winds, blowing snow and near-zero visibility.

Pangnirtung in Nunavut in the north is expected to see a “series of disturbances” that will come over the Davis Strait with an additional 15 cm of snow by Sunday morning.

“Prepare for quickly changing and deteriorating travel conditions,” the weather agency said.

Environment Canada has advised all Canadians to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by the agency.