Think your coffee costs more lately? It’s not your imagination

Roasted coffee beans are seen in this Nov. 2, 2017 photo. (Chris Young / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

Coffee prices in Canada have nearly doubled since 2020 and they’re unlikely to come down, according to one academic.

August saw Canadians paying almost 28 per cent more for store-bought coffee than they did last year, according to a September Statistics Canada report. The price of coffee rose 81.3 per cent from 1979 to 2024 on an average annual basis.

Between 2020 and 2025 the monthly average retail price of coffee went from $5.36 to $9.30 for 340 grams, according to StatCan.

That’s a 73.5 per cent increase over five years.

Due to coffee’s robust demand, sellers will likely not lower their price, said Vik Singh, an associate professor in Toronto Metropolitan University’s Global Management Studies department.

“I don’t think I really see a way out of it. The only thing I can see is coffee prices might not increase as much as (they are) increasing right now,” he said.

“There’s a few retailers who control the whole market,” Singh added. “If I’m Starbucks, why do I need to reduce my coffee prices?”

‘A market risk’

Two of the world’s major coffee producers, Brazil and Vietnam, faced major environmental events affecting harvests in recent years, according to University of Toronto marketing professor David Soberman.

“Global warming is disturbing our weather pattern and it actually increases the likelihood of things that would cause destruction to supply,” he said.

Some of those factors could include storms, less predictable rainfalls and rising temperatures, he said.

Although coffee is a global commodity, meaning there are standard prices across markets, Soberman said swapping suppliers isn’t always easy. “You may not be able to get exactly the quality of coffee that you want.”

He said different coffee sellers, like Starbucks or Tim Hortons, rely on specific types of beans to create their signature products. That means they might not be able to easily swap from one country’s coffee beans to another’s, “that brings with it a market risk,” Soberman said.

He did suggest that with ongoing climate shifts, it would drive producers to innovate.

“If you’ve been growing coffee and harvesting it in a certain way in Brazil for 50 years,” he said, “you probably haven’t changed, but given that there’s climate change, you may adopt certain practices and concepts that allow you to become more efficient.”

Soberman advised Canadian consumers to look for cheaper purchase options such as homemade coffee instead of buying at coffeeshops while the price is high.

‘When you look at the long-term trajectory, it’s always an increase’

According to Dalhousie University’s latest Food Price Report, released Thursday, a quarter of Canadian households are food insecure and the average family of four will spend up to $994 more on food next year.

Canadian groceries have also had some of the fastest rising price tags in the G7, Singh highlighted.

READ MORE: How much more the average Canadian family is expected to spend on food in 2026

Some products have an “elastic demand,” Singh said, meaning consumers will buy more or less depending on the price. Staples like coffee are not elastic and consumers will generally buy them consistently even with price hikes, he added.

“If you’re used to drinking coffee in the morning, you’re used to paying $2 and it goes up to $3, you’re going to suck it up,” Singh suggested.

READ MORE: Tim Hortons raises coffee prices, calls hike ‘more than reasonable’

“There is no commodity, I would say, which has seen a dramatic drop in terms of what the consumer pays,” Singh said, adding that, “Over time when you look at the long-term trajectory, it’s always an increase.”