P.E.I. is growing. Its emissions are not.

A sunbather looks towards an eroded shoreline on North Rustico Beach in Prince Edward Island National Park, P.E.I., Monday, Jul 21, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Giordano Ciampini

Prince Edward Island says it has reduced greenhouse gas emissions for a third straight year, even as the province’s population continues to grow.

In its latest Minister’s Report on Climate Change, the province says it produced 1.592 megatonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in 2023, a 0.9 per cent decrease year over year, based on Environment and Climate Change Canada’s 2025 National Inventory Report.

This comes despite a population growth of 16.65 per cent over the same three-year stretch, in which P.E.I. recorded consecutive declines.

“We’re very proud of the work that we’ve been able to accomplish, with the help of Islanders, of reducing our greenhouse gas emissions,” Arsenault said.

The report credits a range of measures, from home upgrades to climate resilience planning. It says nearly 13,200 households made energy-efficiency improvements through provincial programs in 2024-25, with 21 heat pumps installed in social housing.

On the adaptation side, it cites more than 700 coastal hazard assessments and over 200 hectares of private land secured to be designated as a natural area.

The province also points to transportation work, including more than 143,000 rides on the rural transit service and 30 active transportation projects completed across the Island.

Still, transportation remains P.E.I.’s largest source of emissions, accounting for about 45 per cent.

“We have seen significant population growth, and those people are driving vehicles,” Arsenault says. “We know it is a challenge, and it’s a challenge everywhere else in the country.”

Adam Thorn, director of the Pembina Institute’s transportation program, said vehicle emissions are the largest source in many provinces - or at least the second largest - a pattern that’s reflected nationally as well.

“We have an economic system that’s very much rooted in our transportation system,” Thorn said, adding it goes beyond personal travel. “We move lots of goods and services across the country, with vehicles as well.”

He said the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is central to bringing down transportation emissions, as EVs produce no tailpipe carbon emissions and far less air pollution - but uptake has cooled.

After a surge late in 2024, Statistics Canada data shows the national share of new zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) registrations fell back through much of 2025. ZEVs hit 18.3 per cent of new registrations in Q4 2024, then dropped to 8.7 per cent in Q1 2025 and 8.6 per cent in Q2, before ticking up to 9.4 per cent in Q3.

Thorn pointed to Ottawa’s Incentives for Zero-Emission Vehicles program, which offered up to $5,000 off eligible purchases. Transport Canada abruptly paused the rebate in January 2025, ahead of the program’s scheduled end date in March - a move he said had a “tamping down effect” on demand.

He also cited uncertainty around Ottawa’s federal EV sales mandate - rules meant to steadily increase the share of new vehicles sold that are zero-emission over time - arguing delays can slow momentum in the market.

“That is a really important regulation for creating consumer confidence that people have access to low-cost vehicles.”

Thorn said consistent federal policy matters not just for buyers, but for automakers and the wider charging and electricity system.

“That consistency in policy really creates the predictability they need, to make investments in, for example, research and development and in lowering the cost of batteries,” he said, adding that charging providers also need confidence in demand levels before they build out infrastructure.

Thorn said some provinces are still making real gains on electrification - pointing to steps like expanding electric school bus fleets.

Back on the Island, Arsenault said the province plans to keep promoting the transition through measures like its own EV rebates, alongside transit and active transportation projects. The provincial incentive currently offers $4,000 for eligible battery-electric vehicles and $2,000 for eligible plug-in hybrids, according to the government.

While P.E.I. is moving in the right direction, it’s still not at its 2030 target of less than 1.2 megatonnes. Arsenault said a net-zero action plan is expected in the coming months, outlining next steps to keep driving emissions down.