Lotto Max odds are about to change in Canada

University of Waterloo associate professor Michael Wallace explains how the odds of winning any Lotto Max prize will increase as the price of a ticket goes up.

Canadians who play Lotto Max will soon see changes to the game, including a higher ticket price, more lines per play and slightly improved overall odds of winning a prize.

Starting April 10, the cost of a ticket is set to rise from $5 to $6, while each ticket will now include four lines instead of three. Players will also be choosing seven numbers from 52, rather than 50. These changes will take effect for draws on April 14 and beyond.

Michael Wallace, an associate professor of biostatistics in the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science at the University of Waterloo, said the changes slightly increase how much players can expect to get back over time, in line with the higher ticket price.

“In some senses, you’re getting a slightly higher expected value for your ticket, so when we talk about … wagering $5 on the current ticket or $6 on the future ticket, we can think about what can I expect to get back as a player in the long run,” he said in an interview with CTVNews.ca.

Wallace said that expected return increases slightly in dollar terms to reflect the higher ticket price. However, the shift to a larger pool of numbers means each individual play becomes less likely to win.

“In general with lotteries, the more numbers you’re choosing from, the lower your chances are of winning prizes,” he said. “So, if you look at it on a single play, a single set of seven numbers, your odds of winning any prize have all gone down.” He added that the change is offset by the additional line included on each ticket.

“What you are getting in return to try and balance those odds out, is that currently with Lotto Max, you get three plays per ticket, and with this new $6 ticket, you’re actually going to get four plays per ticket.”

Despite those tweaks, the odds of winning the jackpot remain largely unchanged, shifting from about one in 33.3 million to one in 33.4 million per ticket.

According to Wallace, the most noticeable difference for regular players may be a slight increase in how often they win smaller prizes, as the overall odds of winning any prize improve from roughly one in seven to about one in 5.8.

“Your chances of winning some of those smaller prizes, like a free play or $20 … has actually increased a little bit," he said. " So, your overall odds of winning a prize have increased slightly, but you’ll probably only see that at those lower prize values,” he said.

Under the new format, players will also see the introduction of additional $100,000-prizes tied to the size of the jackpot, similar to existing MaxMillion draws.

“Even though they’re new prizes and someone will win them, the odds of winning those prizes are still very, very, very small,” Wallace said. ”They don’t make a huge difference overall to your odds of winning prizes, but they are certainly something else to look out for if you do get very lucky.”

The maximum jackpot is also increasing, rising to $90 million from the current $80-million cap.