Here’s why some parents may skip Halloween chocolate in favour of candy, according to one analyst

Retail Analyst Doug Stephens on the ‘perfect storm’ that’s causing the surge of Halloween candy prices in the country.

Halloween goodies are more expensive this year, and one expert suggests it may be due to tariffs and shrinkflation.

Tariffs are affecting the prices of sweets this Halloween season, according to Doug Stephens, a retail analyst.

“If we in Canada are getting our chocolate from U.S. distributors, then those U.S. distributors are obviously paying an input cost in the form of tariffs, which could be anywhere from 10 to 30 per cent.”

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Increased input costs result in raised prices, Stephens explained. Chocolate prices have “spiked,” CTV News found this year, partially due to supply chain factors.

Stephens also points to shrinkflation as a contributing factor.

“(You’re) basically paying what you paid last year, but getting substantially less,” he said.

Beyond shrinkflation, Stephens pointed to global factors to explain pricier treats. He said climate change affected the price of coco coming out of west Africa this year, citing a “perfect storm” that has “really impacted the yield of the raw coco crop.”

The shakeups in the chocolate market might be pushing consumers towards other sweets, AP reported, with gummy bears and freeze-dried treats replacing candy bars.

These market disruptions contributed towards price increases of up to 200 per cent, Stephens said.

Less treats might be connected to supplier tricks

Prices are being raised by candy manufacturers to “make up for the volume drop”, Stephens explained, highlighting that there are “very few” producers in the industry.

That reduced demand comes from lifestyle choices and more conscientious consumers, Stephens said, suggesting that people are choosing to be more diligent with their diets and indulging in less sugary sweetness.

“There’s been so much consolidation over the last 20 years in many sectors,” Stephens said, adding that the sweets industry, with major brands like Mars, Nestle, Mondelez and Ferraro, which he claims own 60 per cent of the market, is “no different.”

Those big players, Stephens said, were subject to the same pressures which can contribute to a “tacit level of collaboration.” While they may not be “meeting in dark rooms” or engaging in actual conspiracies, the moves of major players can have wide ripples across the industry.