Grocery inflation varied as Canadians face higher costs for some products, but not all: expert

Agri-Food Analytics Lab Director Sylvian Charlebois discusses what Thanksgiving staples cost more and less this holiday season.

As Canadians celebrate Thanksgiving, and with the holiday season on the horizon, families are feeling the pressure at the grocery store. But not all items are hitting wallets equally hard.

“Turkey generally was cheaper this year,” said Sylvain Charlebois in an interview with CTV’s News Channel Monday. But, he said, “fresh is way more expensive than frozen.”

According to the Agri-Food Analytics Lab director, while some staples have been cheaper this year than last, other key holiday items like potatoes, canned goods and fresh proteins are straining household budgets.

Statistics Canada latest consumer price index shows a mixed bag of pricing, as overall food inflation has cooled compared to 2023. The cost of groceries rose 3.5 per cent annually in August, up a tenth of a point from July.

Meanwhile, StatCan data shows the price growth for meat accelerated to 7.2 per cent in August from 4.7 per cent the previous month, and the cost of fresh and frozen beef surged by 12.7 per cent.

According to Charlebois, fresh produce has offered a rare bright spot for shoppers this fall. Vegetables such as carrots, green beans, broccoli and Brussels sprouts – all popular on Canadian holiday tables – have been cheaper lately than they were last year. Bakery items like bread rolls and desserts like pumpkin pie have remained stable in price.

“Potatoes and everything in a can are more expensive,” Charlebois said. “If you’re accustomed to buying things in a can, like cranberries in a can, gravy in a can, or pumpkin pie filling in a can, you’re going to pay more due to tariffs and counter-tariffs.”

Although the federal government eliminated many counter-tariffs on U.S. goods last month, Charlebois said it will take time for those savings to fully reach customers. For now, canned and imported products remain volatile, affected by global supply chain disruptions and higher shipping costs.

As for proteins, Charlebois said they represent about 40 per cent of all the money Canadians spend at the grocery store.

Charlebois noted that meat prices – particularly beef – are proving to be a persistent challenge.

“The beef situation is problematic right now. When it comes to stability, pork and chicken are much more stable price-wise compared to beef.”

Despite these challenges, Charlebois pointed to one encouraging trend – Canadian shoppers are adapting.

“I’ve been impressed with how people strategize. They do their homework before leaving the house. They know exactly how much you should be paying, and they visit many stores over several weeks, not just to depend on one store.”

Offering another strategy to shoppers, Charlebois recommended those looking ahead to December and hoping to save on holiday meals should consider buying and freezing items for upcoming celebrations.