While Canada has pledged to invest five per cent of its GDP to defence by 2035, one expert says the military will need to address staffing shortages, low recruitment levels and commit to internal reorganization if they actually want to hit that target. In an interview with CTV Your Morning on Monday, David Fraser, CTV military analyst and a retired major-general for the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF), says Canada’s military is “short about 16,000 people.” “They’re going to have to do an awful lot of internal reorganization to spend the money and to actually start to achieve what the government wants,” Fraser said. “Its not going to happen in a couple years.” NATO recently raised its defence spending expectation to five per cent of GDP, up from two per cent, with all NATO members – except for Spain, which secured an exemption – making the new commitment. Prime Minister Mark Carney also announced last month Canada would spend to two per cent of its GDP by the end of the fiscal year. According to an Angus Reid study published last week, only half of Canadians would be willing to enlist in an armed conflict. Despite growing recruitment numbers, the CAF is struggling to meet target personnel numbers. The study found the least likely group to sign up for service were young people, reporting that only 43 per cent of Canadians between the ages of 18 and 34 said they could see themselves signing up for a combat role within the military. Fraser says the answer to enlisting more recruits from younger demographics may come straight from the source. “You’ve gotta listen to what that target population is looking for in the way of a job,” he said, adding that the CAF will have to adapt to “attract them and to keep them,” as they are in competition with the private sector. Currently, the Department of National Defence has nearly 63,500 regular force soldiers and 23,000 reservists. Recruitment efforts have generated results, as between April 1, 2024 and March 31, the DND enrolled more than 6,700 new members into the CAF, while their target was 6,496. That’s a 55 per cent increase over the previous year and a 10-year record. The DND hopes further recruitment efforts can increase its regular force to 71,500 and the reserve to 30,000 by 2030. To support this swell in new soldiers, Fraser said that many experienced soldiers will have to shift from the jobs they’re currently tasked with to more “project management and training.” “The forces have got to streamline the processes that they currently have into what we actually need,” Fraser said. High recruitment numbers are a good sign for the CAF, but retention levels might be more indicative of how realistic meeting NATO targets will be. More than 5,000 members left the military in 2024 and more than 4,200 the year before. Gaëlle Rivard Piché, head of the Conference of Defence Associations and the CDA Institute, told The Canadian Press in June there’s been delays in new recruits receiving basic training, which makes people “less inclined to finish their training and then become an actual serving member.” Fraser says the CAF is already struggling to handle the training of new troops, as civilians who sign up could wait a year to be officially enrolled, then “wait two or three years for training.” To attract new recruits, Fraser highlighted the need for “getting the latest equipment,” which includes “ships, planes, and vehicles that are technologically leading edge,” such as the F-35 jet and drones. Fraser also criticized the state of Canadian military bases and DND facilities, saying the CAF will have to make sure everything is up to snuff in order to attract and retain new recruits. “We have to have bases that are up to snuff and not in the 1950s,“ he said. “Family disruption is a big thing, because now a days you have both partners who are working, you’ve got children who need schooling and doctors.” With files from The Canadian Press
