‘He really has no choice’: Carney faces pressure to deliver in Trump trade talks

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Prime Minister Mark Carney hopes to find relief for Canada’s steel and aluminum sectors during a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington on Tuesday, according to a government source.

The trip marks Carney’s second visit to Washington since his election in April, during which time tariffs on steel, aluminum and lumber have climbed significantly.

• Carney to meet Trump next week, potential movement on steel and aluminum tariffs expected

“Obviously, there are political risks associated with going to the White House. President Zelenskyy, among others can testify to that,” said Eric Miller, a Washington-based US-Canada policy expert and President of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group said.

“From his point of view, it’s better to take the risk of political failure and go to Washington and meet with President Trump rather than sit in Ottawa and hope that something comes to him.”

Carney has been coy about his relationship with the U.S. president. Last month, he told Parliament that Trump is a “modern man” and that the two “speak regularly” and “send each other text messages.”

Former White House trade adviser Kelly Ann Shaw says leaders who forged personal relationships with Trump often had the most success dealing with him.

Still, she warns the upcoming talks between Carney and Trump are likely to be challenging.

“In order for Canada to see reductions in some of these steel and aluminum tariffs, I think a much broader deal is going to have to be struck that involves trade issues, national security issues and others,” Shaw said.

“(These are) Some of the toughest issues that we would have expected to see play out in a USMCA or CUSMA review process but are likely to get ironed out much in advance of that.”

Carney has faced some pressure at home to get a deal done but recent polling largely shows Canadians understand dealing with Trump can be complex.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has largely focused his recent criticism of Carney on domestic issues, only highlighting the downstream impacts of tariffs, like affordability challenges and investment losses.

“There’s no political percentage for Mr. Poilievre at this time to be trying to demand perfection and really harassing, if you will, or objecting to the way the Prime Minister is doing things,” said David McLaughlin, former chief of staff to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney.

“This is for the Prime Minister to deliver or fail and it becomes, in political terms, a very heavy anchor if he fails. It will drag him down,” he added.

Despite some Liberal optimism that tariff relief is possible in the steel and aluminum sector, political observers and industry stakeholders are largely skeptical a trade deal is coming.

“The United States’ position right now is that the status quo is working for them,” Miller said. “They’re collecting a lot of tariffs on a lot of products that they regard as politically sensitive, and they have also kept - broadly speaking - the North American market open.”

The Aluminum Association of Canada told CTV News it doesn’t expect an agreement to come out of the meeting, but a resolution before heading into the review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement is critical.

Experts who spoke to CTV News say that while Carney deepening his relationship with Trump will be beneficial towards a trade deal, leaving Washington without a resolution isn’t necessarily a failure.

“He has to find that kind of sweet spot between elbows up and elbows down. The Oval office is a pretty tough place to do it, but he really has no choice,” McLaughlin said.