‘A serious threat’: Why Canadian steel experts are on edge days before Trump’s tariffs kick in

Catherine Cobden, President and CEO of Canadian Steel Producers Association, discusses Canadian steel and the potential for U.S. tariffs.

As U.S. President Trump doubles down his tariff threats ahead of Feb. 1, Canadian steel producers brace for a repeat of the economic turmoil they faced just five years ago.

“It’s a serious threat, it’s one we take very seriously,” said Catherine Cobden, president and CEO of the Canadian Steel Producers Association.

“The first lesson we learned was tariffs between our two nations did not work and caused pain on both sides of the border,” Cobden said, reflecting on the 2018-2019 tariffs from Trump’s first term.

Speaking with CTV News Channel, Cobden noted the increasing integration between Canadian and American steel sectors but cautioned that new tariffs could significantly impact the nations' $20 billion steel trade.

The last time the U.S. and Canada traded tariff blows, Canadian steel exports to the U.S. dropped by nearly 40 per cent in 2018. Following a year of instability, the tariff battle resulted in a ‘decline’ for Canada, with export values in 2019 falling to their lowest point in nearly a decade, according to Statistics Canada.

It’s one of the many reasons Cobden believes should stand as a ‘lesson of the past.’

Still, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remains firm, and has repeatedly signaled his readiness to respond.

“We are prepared for every possible scenario,” Trudeau said when asked about the potential tariffs. “Donald Trump is, as always, a skilled negotiator and will do what he can to keep his negotiating partners a little bit off balance,” he added.

The federal government has prepared a three-round retaliation response, according to a senior government source.

Among the first to be targeted is American-made consumer products such as Kentucky bourbon and Florida orange juice.

That plan would then be followed by a longer list of U.S. goods worth $37 billion, and if needed, Canada would hit an additional $110 billion in manufacturing and other products.

Trudeau says, “Everything is on the table,” while Cobden hopes for a different approach, suggesting both sides “blow through the rhetoric” and come to an understanding.

“I hope we can blow through a lot of the rhetoric and focus on the need to continue to strengthen our shared objectives and our shared action against unfair trade,” she said. “We’re so much stronger together than we are fighting a tariff war on ourselves.”

If there’s one common disruption the U.S. and Canada share, she says it’s Chinese imports and the severe impact they serve to the entire industry.

“We share a common concern with the United States on the aggressive behaviour of traders in our market and the devastating effect that’s having on both our industries,” she added.

“Something that’s not well understood is that Canada has put in place the same tariff regime on Chinese imports as the United States.”

Cobden hopes the two nations can move beyond rhetoric and focus on collective efforts to strengthen North American industries.

With files from Rachel Aiello and Luca Caruso-Moro