What would happen if Alberta voted to separate from Canada?

A separation referendum could be in the cards for next year, but a vote would be just the beginning of a drawn-out political and legal battle

As the threat of a separation referendum hangs over the province, Indigenous groups and constitutional experts are scoffing at the idea of Alberta actually leaving Canada.

There’s the possibility a 2026 vote could be in the cards — but even an unlikely “yes” at the ballot box wouldn’t trigger an exit. In fact, it would be just the beginning of a drawn-out political and legal battle.

That battle starts and ends with Indigenous groups in the province.

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Treaty Chiefs held an emergency meeting on the subject Tuesday.

“This is treaty country, and any talk of separation is insanity,” Chief Troy Bossman Knowlton of the Piikani Nation said. “You can have all the referendums you want.”

More than 20 leaders stood united behind the notion — even threatening to stop any development and exploration on their lands until their voices are heard.

Knowlton’s message to Premier Danielle Smith? Stop flirting with the idea.

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“We are not going anywhere, and if you feel that you have problems with First Nations, you could leave,” he said.

Chief concerns will need to be heard in any separation conversation. That’s because the entire province is made up of treaty territory or national parks.

The logistics of Quebec’s possible separation took decades to finalize, and since then, Canada has further acknowledged Indigenous people have the right to self-determination through the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (UNDRIP).

“The treaties are binding legal promises between the Crown and Indigenous peoples, and so in order to get the consent from Indigenous peoples, they would have to agree to walk away from that relationship,” University of Calgary Law Professor Kathleen Mahoney said.

“It’s really, really complicated and it’s really not within the realm of possibility.”

And Mahoney points out that’s a conversation that can’t happen until the House of Commons has a say — and until at least two-thirds of the other provinces get on board, representing 50 per cent of the population.

“So those next steps probably involve some sort of dramatic constitutional change: either Alberta becoming a fully separate country or some new form of association,” University of Alberta Professor and constitutional expert Eric Adams said.

“There will be a long list of things that need to be negotiated, and as soon as you create that list, there would be another 50 things on it.”

Even if everything goes right for Alberta separatists and a vote is held and a constitutional amendment is granted, the process would take years.

And if a separating province can’t get recognition through Canada, it would need to get it through the international arena.

Considering other democratic countries are Canadian allies, Adams says it would get complicated quickly.

“The actual destination of Alberta’s new constitutional roles within North America, with its relationship with candidates and the United States … all of those things would have to be determined through long, slow, painful political negotiations.”

That’s not to mention court challenges over Alberta’s share of the national debt, currency, pensions, policing and new trade relationships, to mention a few.

The premier says she’ll respect treaty rights but won’t yet speculate on the feasibility of the entire venture.

“I don’t have answers to those questions, because until we see an actual active question and an active petition campaign, it really is just hypothetical,” Smith said.

“I guess I have to wait and see what kind of question comes forward from citizens.”