CTV News is your Alberta Referendum headquarters. Live results. Expert analysis. Everything you need to know is here. Most Albertans trust their ballots will be counted fairly in Monday’s referendum on the province’s future in Canada, but fewer believe the result will be respected by both sides, according to a new poll. An Abacus Data poll that surveyed 1,021 eligible Alberta voters from Oct. 7 to 13 found 68 per cent trust Elections Alberta to count the ballots fairly, while just 40 per cent trust that both sides of the separation debate will respect the outcome. Another 44 per cent said they distrust that both sides will respect the result. The findings suggest that while many Albertans have confidence in the voting process, they are far less certain the referendum will settle the political divisions surrounding Alberta’s relationship with Canada. The Oct. 19 referendum asks voters whether Alberta should remain a province of Canada or whether the provincial government should begin the legal process required to hold a binding referendum on separation. Confidence in the count, doubts about the outcome The survey found confidence in Elections Alberta’s ability to conduct a fair count crosses the referendum divide. Among respondents planning to vote to remain in Canada, 71 per cent said they trust the count will be fair. The same proportion of those supporting the option to begin the separation process expressed confidence in the count. But 46 per cent of respondents in each camp said they distrust that both sides will respect the final result. “Albertans are pretty split on whether the outcome of the referendum will be respected by both sides of the debate,” said Robson Fletcher, a data and storytelling strategist with Abacus Data. “Albertans trust the process and the outcome, they just don’t trust that other Albertans will respect the outcome.” The partisan divide was more pronounced. Among provincial NDP supporters, 59 per cent said they distrust the result will be respected, compared with 39 per cent of UCP supporters. The survey also found 57 per cent trust Elections Alberta will be able to count votes without outside interference, while just 37 per cent trust that other countries will not interfere in the outcome. Those findings measure voters’ confidence and expectations, rather than evidence of actual interference or an intention by either side to reject the results. Most Albertans expect the separation debate to return Even if Albertans vote to remain in Canada, most respondents don’t believe the question of separation will disappear. The survey found 61 per cent expect Albertans will be asked to vote again on separation or the province’s place in Canada at some point in the future. Among those supporting the option to begin the separation process, that figure rises to 81 per cent. Even among respondents planning to vote to remain in Canada, 55 per cent expect another vote. Asked specifically what would happen if Alberta votes to remain in Canada, only 14 per cent said they believe the issue would be settled for a generation or longer. Another 26 per cent expect the issue to fade before eventually returning, while 23 per cent anticipate another referendum push within a few years. Twenty-four per cent believe the independence movement will continue to grow regardless of the result. In rural Alberta, 34 per cent expect the movement to keep growing, while just five per cent believe the issue would be settled for a generation. Overall, 73 per cent expect the separation issue to return in some form even after a vote to remain in Canada. “There’s a lot of political risk in this for Danielle Smith, I think even after the referendum is decided,” Fletcher said. “A lot of Albertans also said in this October poll that they don’t expect this issue to go away. Even if we have a decisive vote in the Oct. 19 referendum, a lot of Albertans expect this issue is going to continue to be an issue in Alberta politics for some time to come.” Two-thirds want government to move on Despite widespread expectations that the separation debate will continue, most Albertans surveyed want the provincial government to shift its attention to other priorities. Sixty-seven per cent said the government should turn the page after the referendum and focus on everyday issues, including health care, affordability and jobs. Another 22 per cent want the province to continue pressing for greater autonomy from Ottawa, while 11 per cent were unsure. The preference for moving on was shared by a majority of respondents in every region of Alberta. In Edmonton, 73 per cent want the government to focus on everyday issues, compared with 69 per cent in Calgary and 60 per cent in rural Alberta. Among respondents planning to vote to remain in Canada, 85 per cent want the government to move on. But among those supporting the option to begin the separation process, 63 per cent want the government to continue pressing for greater provincial autonomy. UCP supporters divided over what comes next The question of what the government should do after the referendum also exposes a division within the governing UCP’s support base. Among UCP supporters surveyed, 45 per cent said the government should turn the page and focus on everyday issues, while 47 per cent want it to continue pressing for greater autonomy. Eight per cent were unsure. By comparison, 94 per cent of provincial NDP supporters said the government should move on. The findings suggest Premier Danielle Smith faces competing expectations among her party’s supporters over how the province should proceed after Monday’s vote. Albertans anticipate continued confrontation with Ottawa The survey also found limited optimism about the prospect of improved relations between the Alberta and federal governments. Only 17 per cent expect relations to improve after the referendum. Another 42 per cent expect no change, while 25 per cent believe relations will deteriorate. Asked about developments they believe are likely in the year following the vote, 68 per cent expect the Alberta government to push for additional provincial powers, including a provincial pension plan or police force. Sixty per cent believe immigrants will avoid Alberta because of potential restrictions on access to social services, while 55 per cent expect increased tensions between Alberta and other provinces. Another 52 per cent believe businesses will delay or cancel investments because of uncertainty surrounding Alberta’s future. “The entire debate around separation, the fact that we’re having this referendum, they worry about it harming the economy,” Fletcher said. “And they worry about it creating this type of uncertainty that does reduce business investment, that has negative economic consequences. This has been evident for quite some time in public opinion that Albertans feel this debate is having negative consequences for the Alberta economy.” The figures reflect respondents’ expectations, rather than forecasts that those developments will occur. Only 32 per cent believe Albertans who disagree over separation are likely to move past their differences and come together, while 51 per cent consider that unlikely. UCP lead over NDP narrows The survey also asked Albertans how they would vote if a provincial election were held. Among decided voters, 47 per cent said they would support Danielle Smith’s UCP, compared with 42 per cent for Naheed Nenshi’s Alberta NDP. The five-percentage-point difference represents a narrowing from September, when the UCP led the NDP by 52 per cent to 39 per cent. The Progressive Tory Party, led by Peter Guthrie, received six per cent support among decided voters, while another five per cent supported other parties. The regional breakdown shows a considerably different political picture in Alberta’s two largest cities. In Calgary, the NDP received 47 per cent support among decided voters, compared with 44 per cent for the UCP. In Edmonton, the NDP led 55 per cent to 31 per cent. Outside the major cities, the UCP maintained a larger advantage. In rural Alberta, the UCP received 57 per cent support compared with 32 per cent for the NDP. In small cities and bedroom communities, the UCP led 56 per cent to 35 per cent. The survey does not establish whether the change in provincial voting intentions was caused by the referendum debate. Fletcher cautioned that the survey did not ask respondents why their voting intentions changed, and it cannot establish that the referendum caused the shift. “We did see a significant shift in support away from the UCP in our September poll and towards the NDP in our October poll. The UCP still held a small lead in our October poll, but it was significantly reduced,” Fletcher said. “The fact is, Albertans largely have a negative view towards this entire process. This is a process that has been initiated and championed by the provincial UCP government, so it’s… there’s certainly reason to think that that may be connected to the decline in support that we’ve seen for the UCP, even in this past month.” About the survey The Abacus Data survey was conducted online between Oct. 7 and 13, 2026, among 1,021 eligible Alberta voters. Participants were recruited through partner online panels, and results were weighted using census data to reflect Alberta’s population. Because the survey used a non-probability online panel, a conventional probability-based margin of error cannot be assigned to its results. Abacus Data says a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size would have a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
