Alberta performs better than other provinces, but half say it is ‘on the wrong track’: Angus Reid poll

Alberta's provincial flag flies on a flagpole in Ottawa, Monday July 6, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

Premier Danielle Smith is enjoying significantly more support than the leader of her opposition, but many Albertans feel the province is still on the wrong path, a new poll says.

The survey, released by the Angus Reid Institute on Wednesday, found the UCP leader has 46 per cent approval among Albertans while Naheed Nenshi, leader of the Alberta NDP, “faces a struggle” with voters, who only garners 33 per cent support.

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“The Alberta NDP face the challenge of distancing themselves from their federal counterparts once again on matters of oil and gas development and pipelines,” Angus Reid said in its Cross-Canada Outlook.

“Maintaining that fine line between the provincial party and the federal one under the new leadership of (Avi) Lewis will be a challenge for Nenshi and the NDP as Alberta nears the next scheduled provincial election date in 2027.”

Compounding the problems for the Alberta NDP, Nenshi will also face an incumbent government that many believe is performing well.

“Alberta, with a score of 33, is the second highest scoring province in the country, behind Saskatchewan at 36. It also outperforms the Canadian average score of 25,” the pollster said, adding that the score is made up of the percent of residents who believe their government is performing well on an issue as well as how much of a priority that issue is for them.

The top issues for Albertans, identified by the poll, are health care and the cost of living.

One of the key takeaways from that index is how well the province is managing, says John Roe, senior research associate with Angus Reid.

“Though there are a lot of issues that are very challenging for provincial governments to address right now, and there are a lot of people who are very critical of how the Alberta government is handling these issues, they are performing better than other provinces on those top issues of cost of living and health care,” he said.

The poll suggests 29 per cent believe Alberta is doing a good job on fixing the health-care system, nine points better than the Canadian average.

About the cost of living issue, 28 per cent of Albertans think the current UCP government is doing well, much better than the 16 per cent average Canadians give their provincial governments.

“Taken side by side with the Canadian average assessment of provincial government performance on the varying issues, both Alberta’s relatively better performance and the potential for further improvement is evident,” Angus Reid said.

Despite the performance of the government and approval of its leader, the poll said many Albertans still feel the province is headed in the wrong direction.

Fifty-two per cent of Albertans say the province is on the wrong track, with 38 per cent saying it’s on the right track.

It didn’t ask about the issue of separation, but Roe said it does factor into what Albertans think about their leader.

“I think there has been a lot of criticism of Danielle Smith of the way she’s handled separation, the separatist issue, the fact that they’ve changed these rules to make it a lot easier for that petition to go through,” he said. “But yet, from our numbers, where we’ve asked Albertans, ‘Okay, do you approve of Danielle Smith? Do you approve of the job she’s doing?’

“Her numbers have been very consistent over time, basically in that 44 to 46 per cent range, dating back to even prior to separation becoming as big of a political issue as it is now.”

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from March 11 to 17, among a randomized sample of 434 Canadian adults who are residents of Alberta.

For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- five percentage points, 19 times out of 20.