Royal LePage bumps up home price forecast for this year as momentum builds

Jason Mercer, chief information officer at Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss spring home sales.

TORONTO — Royal LePage says it is raising its national housing price forecast for this year as demand continues to outpace supply in some regions.

The real estate company now expects the aggregate price of a home in Canada to increase two per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $823,344 compared with the same quarter last year — up from its previous forecast of a one per cent gain.

Quebec City is expected to see the largest year-over-year price growth at eight per cent, followed by the Greater Montreal Area and Winnipeg, each at five per cent. Home prices in Halifax, Edmonton and Regina are expected to rise four per cent, according to the forecast.

Prices in Canada’s two most expensive markets, the Vancouver and Toronto regions, are expected to fall 3.5 per cent and two per cent, respectively, compared with late 2025.

It said the spring housing market began to find its footing in May following a sluggish start to the year, with momentum carrying into June.

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Royal LePage president and CEO Phil Soper said he’s optimistic that the fall market will remain on track, as pent-up demand from buyers and sellers who delayed listing earlier this year continues to build.

“Several regions are now seeing that uptick in momentum carry into summer, as buyers who held back earlier in the year re-enter the market,” said Soper in a news release, as Royal LePage released its second-quarter home price update and market forecast report.

“In many cases, what has kept consumers on the sidelines is not a lack of interest, but a lack of urgency. In markets where inventory levels remain elevated, homebuyers have the luxury of time, browsing at their own pace until the right property comes along.”

He said that approach has been reinforced by a “persistent backdrop of economic uncertainty” affecting Canadians’ decisions to move. That includes elevated inflation driven by rising energy prices, reflecting hostilities in the Middle East, along with the unpredictable future of Canada’s trade relationship with the United States.

The Trump administration indicated on July 1 it would not extend the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, triggering a period of annual reviews that will run until the agreement’s scheduled expiry in 2036.

“For Canadian consumers, ambiguity surrounding CUSMA is another reason to pause and reassess before making major financial commitments, including the decision to buy or sell a home,” said Soper.

“Even though most are not directly impacted through their employment, we know that trade-related anxiety is enough to weigh on consumer confidence.”

The report said the aggregate price of a home in Canada decreased 1.4 per cent year-over-year to $814,900 in the second quarter. However, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price remained essentially flat, ticking up 0.2 per cent.

Measured by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home fell 0.9 per cent year-over-year to $862,400, while the median price of a condominium decreased 2.9 per cent to $574,800. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home rose 0.6 per cent, while the median price of a condominium decreased 0.5 per cent.

The report noted a shrinking price gap between Canada’s most and least expensive markets. While the aggregate price of a home decreased 4.5 per cent year-over-year in Greater Vancouver and 4.6 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area in the second quarter, limited supply elsewhere in the country has pushed home prices higher nationally.

“Softening home prices in our largest and most costly cities are making these markets more accessible, opening the door for buyers who may have previously been priced out,” Soper said.

“Meanwhile, secondary markets that did not experience drastic pandemic price increases followed by sharp declines, have continued to record steady home price gains. Looking ahead, this could translate into less interprovincial migration than we have become accustomed to this decade.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 14, 2026.

Sammy Hudes, The Canadian Press