‘A downturn that is really starting to wreak havoc:’ New condo sales in GTHA continue decline as developers cancel more projects

Condominiums and the CN Tower are shown along the Toronto skyline on Tuesday, April 25, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Cole Burston

The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area new condominium market saw just 502 sales in the last quarter, prompting one real estate analysis firm to speak out about what it says is a “downturn that is really starting to wreak havoc.”

The number was included in Urbanation’s latest report, released Tuesday.

The firm said that the 502 new condominium units that changed hands in the second quarter marks a decline of 69 per cent compared to the same time period last year and represents a 91 per cent drop compared to the 10-year average.

“The market has entered a phase of the downturn that is really starting to wreak havoc. Project cancellations are mounting, construction starts are collapsing, jobs are being lost, buyers are losing a lot of money, and developers are facing difficulties with closings,” Urbanation President Shaun Hildebrand said in an analysis accompanying the data.

The GTHA condo market has been sluggish for much of the past year, with a Royal LePage report released earlier this week showing that the median price of a GTHA condominium unit fell 5.6 per cent year-over-year to $699,700.

The median price of a single-family detached home decreased 1.2 per cent year-over-year to $1,448,700, according to the same report.

Urbanation said in its analysis that four proposed condominium buildings were cancelled in the second quarter alone, bringing the number of cancelled developments since the start of 2024 to 21.

The firm said that the cancellations of those projects will result in the loss of 4,412 housing units.

Developers also appear to be holding off on new projects, with Urbanation’s data suggesting that only three projects started presales this quarter, representing just under 900 units.

Inventory levels, however, continue to soar amid soft demand.

“The GTHA had a record-high 2,478 new condominium apartments that were completed and available for purchase from developers as of Q2-2025, a 102 per cent increase from a year ago and more than five times higher than the level from two years ago,” Urbanation said. Note that this figure doesn’t fully account for all completed units that were pre-sold but the purchaser has yet to close. Meanwhile, sales by developers in completed new condo projects totalled 131 units in Q2-2025, resulting in 60 months of supply for standing inventory on the market.”

The price per square foot of condos also saw a six per cent decline from last year and a 16 per cent drop from two years ago, Urbanation said.

In his analysis, Hildebrand said that while an eventual reduction in the completion of new condominium buildings “should help to alleviate some pressure, the near-term will remain very challenging” for the new condo market.