Nik Nanos: Canadians’ optimism about their personal finances hits rock bottom

Nanos Research's consumer confidence tracking reports that when Canadians were asked whether their personal finances are better, worse or the same compared to a year ago, only 11 per cent said better. (Getty Images / D3sign)

Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research and the official pollster for CTV News and The Globe and Mail.

Are you better off today than you were when Liberal Mark Carney won the election?

Brace yourself. That may very well be the ballot question come the next federal election. It’s a fair question both for the incumbent and the challenger.

The Carney advantage in the wake of the election continues. The Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives by seven points and Carney holds a significant 23-point advantage over Pierre Poilievre on the preferred prime minister tracking.

Sounds pretty good for the Liberals today. The big question is where things will be in the future.

Our consumer confidence tracking for Bloomberg News suggests that when we ask Canadians if their personal finances are better, worse or the same compared to a year ago, only 11 per cent say better.

That ties the record for the worst positive sentiment since Nanos started tracking this back in 2008.

The Liberals should take note.

Yes, there is latitude for the new Carney government to move forward on an agenda of making the Canadian economy more resilient, working to bring major infrastructure projects to fruition, and bringing greater certainty to the trade relation.

But they will be judged by what they accomplish.

One must also recognize that, setting aside the comparative lagging preferred prime minister numbers of Poilievre, he has purposefully and consistently built a personal brand and credibility on cost-of-living issues.

At some point, there will be greater stability in the Canada-U.S. trade relationship. Once that happens, and the trade fixation subsides, the state of personal finances may very well emerge as the paramount concern of Canadians. Here is where the advantage may fall to the Conservatives.

The good and the bad news for Prime Minister Carney is that he is in control of his destiny. If he can deliver, there will be political dividends. If not, there will be political repercussions.

We can expect a high velocity Carney government in a hurry to move things forward and a Poilievre opposition, biding its time waiting for the mood to turn.