IMF cuts growth outlook, warns of potential global recession if Iran war worsens

The International Monetary Fund said it would bring Ukraine's request for US$1.4 billion in emergency financing to its executive board as early as next week, the IMF said Saturday.

The International Monetary Fund cut its growth outlook on Tuesday due to Iran war-driven energy price spikes and supply disruptions and warned that the global economy would teeter on the brink of recession if the conflict worsens and oil stays above $100 per barrel through 2027.

With massive uncertainty over the Middle East conflict gripping finance officials gathering for IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, the IMF presented three growth scenarios: weaker, worse and severe, depending on how the war unfolds.

The World Economic Outlook‘s most optimistic “reference scenario” assumes a short-lived Iran war and forecasts 3.1 per cent real GDP growth for 2026, down 0.2 percentage point from its previous forecast in January. Under this scenario, oil prices average US$82 per barrel for all of 2026, a decline from recent levels of around $100 for the Brent benchmark futures price.

Absent the Middle East conflict, the IMF said it would have upgraded its growth outlook by 0.1 percentage point to 3.4 per cent, due to a continued technology investment boom, lower interest rates, less-severe U.S. tariffs and fiscal support in some countries.

But the war has created a far bigger risk to the global economy than President Donald Trump’s initial wave of steep tariffs did a year ago, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told Reuters in an interview.

“What’s happening in the Gulf is potentially much, much larger, and that’s what our scenarios are kind of documenting,” he said.

Under an “adverse scenario” of a longer conflict that keeps oil prices around $100 per barrel this year and $75 in 2027, the IMF predicts global GDP growth would fall to 2.5 per cent this year. The IMF in January had forecast that oil would decline to about $62 in 2026.

And the IMF’s worst-case “severe scenario” assumes an extended and deepening conflict and much higher oil prices that prompt major financial market dislocations and tighter financial conditions, slashing global growth to 2.0 per cent.

“This would mean a close call for a global recession,” the IMF said, adding that growth has been below that level only four times since 1980 - with the last two severe recessions in 2009, following the financial crisis, and in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic raged.

Inflation pressures

Gourinchas said that a number of countries would be in outright recessions under this scenario, with oil prices averaging $110 per barrel in 2026 and $125 in 2027. Prices at this level for an extended time would also increase expectations “that inflation is here to stay,” prompting wider price increases and wage hike demands.

“That change in inflation expectations is going to require central banks to step on the brakes and try to bring inflation back down,” he said, adding that this may require more pain than in 2022.

The IMF said, however, that central banks may be able to “look through” a short-lived energy price surge and hold rates steady amid weaker activity, which would be a de facto monetary easing, but only if inflation expectations remain anchored.

Global inflation for 2026 would top six per cent in the severe scenario, compared to 4.4 per cent in the most-optimistic reference scenario, which is the assumption for the IMF’s country and regional growth forecasts.

Major economy outlooks

The IMF shaved its U.S. growth outlook for this year to 2.3 per cent, down just a tenth of a percentage point from January, reflecting the positive effect of tax cuts, the lagged effect of interest rate cuts and continued AI data center investment partly offsetting the higher energy costs. These effects are expected to continue in 2027, with growth now forecast at 2.1 per cent, up a tenth of a point from January.

The euro zone, still struggling with higher energy prices caused by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, takes a bigger hit from the Middle East conflict, with its growth outlook falling 0.2 percentage points in both years to 1.1 per cent in 2026 and 1.2 per cent for 2027.

Japan’s growth is largely unchanged under the most benign scenario at a weak 0.7 per cent for 2026 and 0.6 per cent for 2027, but the IMF said that it expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates at a slightly faster pace than anticipated six months ago.

The IMF forecast China’s growth for 2026 at 4.4 per cent, down a tenth of a point from January as the higher energy and commodity costs are partly offset by lower U.S. tariff rates and government stimulus measures. But the IMF said headwinds from a depressed housing sector, a declining labor force, lower returns on investment and slower productivity growth will cut China’s 2027 growth to 4.0 per cent, a forecast unchanged from January.

Emerging markets, Middle East hit hard

Overall, emerging market and developing economies, where GDP tends to be more dependent on oil inputs, take a bigger hit from the Middle East conflict than advanced economies, with 2026 growth seen falling 0.3 percentage points to 3.9 per cent.

Nowhere is this more pronounced than at the epicenter of the conflict in the Middle East and Central Asia region, which will see its 2026 GDP growth fall by two full percentage points to 1.9 per cent amid widespread infrastructure damage and sharply curtailed energy and commodity exports.

GDP declines for 2026 are forecast at 6.1 per cent for Iran, 8.6 per cent for Qatar, 6.8 per cent for Iraq, 0.6 per cent for Kuwait and 0.5 per cent for Bahrain.

But under the assumption of a short-lived conflict, the region bounces back quickly, with 2027 GDP growth rebounding to 4.6 per cent, a jump of 0.6 percentage point from the January forecasts.

The one bright spot amid emerging markets is India, which saw growth upgrades of about a tenth of a percentage point to 6.5 per cent for both 2026 and 2027, due in part to momentum from strong growth at the end last year and a deal to lower the U.S. tariff rate on Indian imports.

Fuel costs fiscal support

The IMF said that governments will be tempted to implement fiscal measures to ease the pain of higher energy prices, including price caps, fuel subsidies or tax cuts, but cautioned against these urges amid still-elevated budget deficits and rising public debt.

Gourinchas said it was “perfectly legitimate” to want to protect the most vulnerable, but subsidies in one country could lead to fuel shortages in others that can’t afford them.

“You have to do it in a very targeted, very temporary way that doesn’t really mess up the fiscal framework” needed by most countries to rebuild their fiscal buffers, he said.

(Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Andrea Ricci)