CREA reports January home sales fell as southern Ontario was hit by huge winter storm

Shaun Cathcart, senior economist at CREA, joins BNN Bloomberg to assess pent-up demand in real estate.

The Canadian Real Estate Association says home sales in January fell 16.2 per cent compared with a year earlier as southern Ontario was hit by a massive winter storm.

The association said 22,533 residential properties changed hands across the country last month, as January sales were also down 5.8 per cent compared with December 2025 on a seasonally adjusted basis.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart said the drop was driven primarily by the Greater Golden Horseshoe and southwestern Ontario regions, suggesting the move was probably more about the storm than a downshift in demand.

“Notwithstanding the chilly start to the year, we continue to expect 2026 will ultimately be defined by pent-up demand from first-time buyers finally seeing a chance to enter the market,” he said in a press release.

Last month, the association said it expects national home sales to grow 5.1 per cent in 2026, marking a rebound from last year’s tariff-induced slowdown in the market.

For Hamilton-area real estate agent Joe Ferrante, frigid and stormy weather was likely a factor in keeping buyers at home instead of going to house showings last month, but not the main reason for less activity.

He said the decrease in transactions was likely an “extension” of the cool market of late 2025.

“The year ended slow and soft and it just carried right in to January,” said Ferrante, a broker for Royal Lepage State Realty.

He said many still on the sidelines are waiting for prices to bottom out.

The national average sale price in January was $652,941, down 2.6 per cent from a year earlier. The association has projected the national average home price to rise 2.8 per cent on an annual basis this year to $698,881.

CREA’s home price index, which aims to represent the sale of typical homes, edged 0.9 per cent lower between December and January and was down 4.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

“I feel (prices) are at their lowest point. I don’t think they’re going to get any lower than where they are right now,” said Ferrante, adding that borrowing costs also seem to have stabilized.

Last month, the Bank of Canada held its key policy rate at 2.25 per cent.

“So now buyers have some fixed costs they can actually plan around,” he said.

“I think it’s just a matter of time getting the buyers out there. They wanted the inventory, they wanted the stabilized rates. So everything the buyers wanted is there. But where are the buyers?”

January’s drop in sales came as the number of newly listed properties rose 7.3 per cent on a month-over-month basis.

CREA said there were 140,680 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS systems at the end of January, up 4.5 per cent from a year earlier but 11.4 per cent below the long-term average for that time of year.

BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic said the true test of the extent of the market rebound will come this spring.

“Many talk about pent-up demand given the lack of sales volume in 2025, but there’s probably also a significant amount of pent-up supply in the form of listings that were sitting and ultimately pulled after not selling,” he said in a research note.

“We’ll have a better indication when the market thaws out in early spring, but expect any pent-up demand to be at least equally met by pent-up listings.”

By Sammy Hudes, The Canadian Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 18, 2026.