Can Canadians count on delivery of holiday mail amid Canada Post strife? This is what one expert had to say

A Canada Post mail carrier delivers fliers on their route in Montreal on Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi

Despite ongoing labour tension between the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW), Canada Post and the federal government attempting to impose sweeping changes on the Crown corporation, Canadians can expect their holiday mail to be delivered this year, an expert says.

CUPW suspended all strike action on Nov. 21 after announcing it had reached an agreement “in principle” with Canada Post on a new collective agreement. While the contract language is still being negotiated and no agreement has been ratified, normal operations have resumed.

“In the short run, given that the labour disputes are over for now, I think that people can count on their letters being delivered over the next four weeks,” Ian Lee, associate professor of management at Carleton University, told CTVNews.ca in an interview.

“So, I don’t think there’s a great risk unless there’s another labour disruption, but I don’t think there will be, not from what I’m reading or hearing or seeing.”

Postal workers had been striking in some form since September, when the federal government announced its intention to implement a number of Canada Post reforms, many of which CUPW said would fundamentally change mail delivery in the country and endanger thousands of jobs.

But the federal government and Canada Post have maintained that the corporation’s business model is unsustainable given the massive financial strain it’s come under in recent years.

At its annual meeting earlier this month, Canada Post’s chief financial officer Rindala El-Hage said the Crown corporation is “effectively insolvent,” reporting an operating loss of more than $1 billion so far this year.

Lee, who was a policy analyst with Canada Post in the 1980s, said that after being resistant to fundamental reforms for years, CUPW seems to have changed its tune this time around given the hard stance Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has taken on the issue.

“They finally understand (after) the comments made by the prime minister and (Public Works Minister Joël Lightbound) … that it’s inevitable, and so they’ve got to go along with the reforms or the post office will disappear,” Lee said.

‘Much-needed stability’

In an emailed statement to CTVNews.ca, CUPW said that its latest bargaining round with Canada Post was a difficult one. The dispute stretches back more than two years, and mail delivery was heavily impacted last holiday season until the federal government ordered employees back to work.

“Reaching tentative collective agreements that postal workers can confidently ratify will bring much-needed stability back to the public postal service and ensure workers finally receive the fair working conditions and respect they deserve,” the statement read.

“Our priority remains what it was when bargaining started two years ago: strong public services, good jobs, and a sustainable public post office that serves all communities.”

CTVNews.ca reached out to Canada Post for comment but did not receive a response by the time of publication.

‘Not sustainable’

Unlike last year’s strike, which lasted from mid-November until mid-December, the looming busy and pressure-filled holiday season wasn’t the main reason it ended this year, Lee argued.

“I don’t think it’s the time of the year, I think the intervening set of events were the election of Prime Minister Carney and, more importantly, the comments he’s made,” Lee said.

“He’s been very, very clear; it is not sustainable, and we will not bail out Canada Post indefinitely into the future.”

If CUPW’s agreement in principle to Canada Post’s latest contract proposal is evidence of the union’s “genuine recognition of the changed reality” for the corporation, it could mean far fewer service disruptions going forward, Lee said.

“It all really comes down to CUPW and the leadership and whether or not they accept now the need to fundamentally, and I mean fundamentally – that’s not a buzzword – restructure the post office,” he said.

“In plain English that means franchising post offices, it means (reducing) home delivery … it means dynamic route scheduling so that a post office worker can’t finish their run by 11 in the morning and go home for the day. All of these things have to be reformed.”

Although Lee believes holiday mail such as Christmas cards will likely be delivered as normal by Canada Post this year, he said that two years of bargaining is difficult for workers to handle, and to ramp back up to full operations during the busiest time of year will be challenging.

Canada Post may also have a hard time bringing back customers it lost during strikes this year and last. Lee said many of these customers may have decided to permanently do business with private couriers instead.

“Whether they will have the commitment and the motivation after the last two years, and the (fact that) they know they’re facing imminent major downsizing, whether that will motivate them sufficiently to provide the service and bring back the customers, I’m very skeptical,” said Lee.