‘Government would likely step in’: Canada Post unlikely to go under, analyst says

A Canada Post delivery truck is photographed in Montreal on Friday, Aug. 22, 2025.

Although Canada Post reports losing $407 million in the second quarter of 2025, a business analyst says there is still hope for the postal service to win back some of its customers.

The postal service is on track to post its eighth consecutive year of losses, with 2025 expected to be the most significant to date with more than half of the year-to-date loss occurring in June, according to the report.

• Canada Post reports $407 million Q2 loss as parcel volume suffers

The postal service reported that continued unresolved negotiations between it and its union, the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW), has significantly impacted its business.

“It’s also some of the operational uncertainty that’s caused problems,” business analyst Marvin Ryder told CTV News Channel on Tuesday.

“Moving on this idea of getting rid of some door-to-door delivery in favour of community mailboxes, looking at closing some of the smaller post offices, in favour of kiosks.”

Though, despite the reported loss, Ryder says there are two factors working in Canada Post’s favour to win back some customers.

One being its mandate to deliver to every mailbox in the country — sometimes reaching beyond the areas covered by urban and suburban private carriers — and the preference of small businesses for its pricing.

“If we could get stability back, if we could get operation efficiency back, I think it’s possible to win back some of those customers, but we’ve got to make a lot happen in a short period of time,” Ryder said.

A strike action was initiated by CUPW and began on Nov. 15, 2024, after the union and postal service were unable to reach an agreement during negotiations for a new contract that began in November 2023.

The federal government ordered workers back to work on Dec. 17 and extended Canada Post’s contracts with its employees until May 2025.

The union gave another notice that the strike would resume in May, but later announced a ban on overtime work instead.

The two parties are still in the midst of negotiations — the two last meetings on Aug. 22 and Aug. 25 were postponed.

With negotiations between Canada Post and its union still unresolved, Ryder says there is a possibility that resolving labour uncertainty and operational issues might still not be enough to win back customers.

Though, Ryder says it is unlikely that the corporation will go under and that the federal government would likely step in.