CHICAGO - Conrad Black, who is facing decades in prison after being convicted of fraud and obstruction of justice, is likely to remain free after this week's bail hearing because he's a first-time offender who's repeatedly vowed to fight the charges against him, say experts following the case.

The Montreal-born British peer and former media baron was convicted of three charges of fraud and one count of obstruction of justice Friday -- a verdict that carries penalties of as much as 35 years in a U.S. federal prison.

After the verdict was announced, lead prosecutor Eric Sussman tried to have Black immediately remanded in custody, saying Black may be motivated by the harshness of the penalty he is facing -- estimated by the government to be somewhere between 15 to 20 years.

But most observers seem to agree with Black's lawyer Ed Genson, who argued Black was a "very visible man who's followed by reporters wherever he goes.''

"My sense is that the prosecution wants him jailed because they want to make an example out of Black,'' said James Morton, president of the Ontario Bar Association.

Black, he noted, still has to go through the appeal and sentencing process, and could easily stay out of jail until September of 2009 if he is released on bail.

"Punishment will not follow the conviction very promptly,'' he said.

Still, Judge Amy St. Eve seemed hesitant to order Black to jail immediately after the verdict, choosing instead to put off the bail hearing until this week. St. Eve asked him to stay in Chicago and turn over his U.K. passport.

Black gave up his Canadian citizenship when former Prime Minister Jean Chretien tried to block his appointment to Britain's House of Lords.

St. Eve also made Black swear an extradition waiver, promising not to fight possible extradition if he were to return to Canada before sentencing.

During the bail hearing, the judge is expected to set a new amount for bail, if she decides that he doesn't pose a flight risk -- that he is not likely to re-offend -- and that his release won't cause public outrage.

"It really comes down to: is Conrad Black a flight risk?'', Morton said.

"It's pretty clear to me that no one in the public will be scandalized if Black is released pending bail.''

That criteria, he said, is more often reserved for cases such as that of a man killing his wife or that of the 13-year-old Alberta girl found guilty of murdering her parents and younger brother earlier this month.

"It is going to be very hard for the prosecutors to put him in jail at this point,'' said Rick Powers, assistant dean of management at the University of Toronto.

"He's not a flight risk (and) he has assets that will support being released on bail.''

One of those assets is Black's Palm Beach mansion in Florida , which was put up in 2006 to secure his initial bond.

Sussman evoked Black's failure to make mortgage payments on that property to argue he was not abiding by his current bail conditions Friday, but the former media mogul's lawyers say that isn't the case. They argue the mansion should not be forfeitable since it was acquired before any fraud was committed.

Another point the judge is likely to consider in deciding whether to allow Black to stay out on bail, Powers said, is that he lacks prior convictions and "hasn't been in this situation before.''

The severity of the charges will also play into bail and sentencing decisions, since while the obstruction charge is serious, the fraud Black was ultimately convicted of amounted to about $3 million _ not the $60 million he was initially charged with.

Black was acquitted of nine of the counts against him, including racketeering and misuse of corporate perks, such as taking a company plane on a Pacific Island vacation and billing shareholders thousands of dollars for a family birthday party.

Observers peg his possible jail time well below prosecutors' estimates, and suggest he may serve between three and nine years.

If he remains free until the Nov. 30 sentencing hearing, Black is expected to be asked to report to the courts periodically -- a condition that was imposed on his three co-defendants who were each convicted of three charges of fraud. Mark Kipnis, Peter Atkinson and Jack Boultbee were all released under their previous bail Friday. Atkinson and Boultbee were allowed to return to Canada. Kipnis lives in Chicago.

For Black, however, a trip back to his Toronto residence is unlikely, since as a convicted felon without a Canadian passport, getting across the border would be impossible.

Since the court will also keep his U.K. passport in the event he is released on bail, Powers said, "he won't be able to travel to anywhere.''