Automakers launch electric cars, but are we ready?

Talk to politicians or savvy start-ups looking for a cash infusion and they'll tell you the same thing: electric cars are the way of the future.

Indeed, with improving battery technology and a desire to go green in both the public and private sectors, it would appear that the future is now for battery-powered cars.

Even Britain's influential Economist magazine recently speculated that a critical mass of private investments would be enough to launch the electric car, just as major cash investments in web browsers helped kick-start the first tech bubble in the mid-90s.

But if it sounds too good to be true, it just might be, according to auto analysts.

"At the end of the day, the most troublesome elements for alternate power is weight," said auto expert Dennis DesRosiers in an interview with CTV.ca.

He added that while many consumers want performance, the only way to deliver more power for electric cars is to make the batteries bigger, which leads to a vicious circle.

"That's the big sin," DesRosiers said. "There isn't anything on the horizon that deals with the weight issue."

After all, if most laptop computers have battery performance issues, imagine the complications of running a mid-sized sedan.

Still, that's not stopping some of the major automakers from diving into the electric car market this year.

Nissan plans to put its new Leaf on sale in the U.S. at the end of the year, with the first models coming to Canada in 2011.

Nissan says the Leaf will be reasonably priced for a compact, but is likely hoping that government rebates for buyers will also help move units.

Hype should certainly help out, too.

Meanwhile, Ford has said that "green" vehicles will become the core of its business, and execs are predicting that between 10 and 25 per cent of North American vehicles will be electric or hybrid by 2020. The company plans to unveil an electric version of the popular Focus next year.

Meanwhile, GM will release the Chevy Volt at the end of the year. Similar to the Leaf, it has an electric engine and a backup gas motor, which will come in handy for longer trips.

Toyota, meanwhile, is expected to deliver the FT-EV prototype to the masses in 2012.

Despite the hype, however, DesRosiers, isn't convinced.

"I think electric vehicles are more likely to come to a crashing failure than a big success," he predicted.

As for start-ups like Tesla Motors, which has already delivered the "high performance" Roadster, survival will be difficult, he added.

Plus, many of these vehicles will be niche models at best. For example, Ford will likely build 10,000 units maximum of their battery-powered Focus in the short-term.

"If that consumer niche is big enough, then some of these companies may be able to survive," DesRosiers said.

While DesRosiers hailed the electric motor as one of the most exciting developments in the auto industry, he said the technology needs time to mature. Perhaps more importantly, consumers also need time to get used to the idea of a car that plugs in.

"I don't want to discount how exciting the technology is," he said, adding that "it is still a decade, or likely two decades, from reaching any mass consumer acceptance."

Governments are doing what they can to spur interest in the burgeoning technology, with Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty offering a $10,000 rebate for drivers who buy the Volt.

Ironically, however, such programs could actually hinder the movement of electric cars into the mainstream.

According to Michael Hatch, chief economist for the Canadian Automobile Dealers Association, the main deterrent for consumers to go electric will be the price.

But if governments artificially bring down the price, automakers won't have the same motivation to get production costs under control.

"That could potentially slow down the development," he said.

Instead, Hatch suggested that governments continue to support the research and development side of the industry, rather than the sales side.

Hatch estimated that by 2020, electric cars could represent between one and 10 per cent of total auto sales, meaning the goal of getting gas guzzlers off the roads for good could still be a long way off.

"It's very difficult to predict the future," he said.