While the three major parties remain close together in this week’s Nanos Party Power Index, the NDP is enjoying a 12-month high when it comes to accessible voters -- and is now numerically first on that front.

This week:

  • 48.9% would consider voting NDP (+0.2% from last week)
  • 48.2% would consider voting Liberal (-1.7%)
  • 44.4% would consider voting Conservative (unchanged)

See the latest charts and graphs in our Nanos on the Numbers home page

The proportion of Canadians who would consider voting for the NDP has numerically surpassed the Liberals for the first time ever in our Nanos tracking.

What’s interesting about this week’s numbers is that when we ask Canadians who they would prefer to be prime minister, Mulcair trails both Harper and Trudeau.

  • 31.8% say Harper is their preferred PM (-0.7% from last week)
  • 28.6% say Trudeau is their preferred PM (+0.1)
  • 20.0% say Mulcair is their preferred PM (-0.3%)

So recent gains from the NDP are more related to the party’s brand than to their leader.

Why?

There are a number of things at play. Don't underestimate the impact of the Alberta election, but fatigue with the Liberals and the Tories may also have something to do with the rise in the NDP numbers. The reality is that with the NDP, it’s fair to say they have the least amount of baggage, federally, compared to the other two parties.

Meanwhile, weekly tracking on the Nanos Party Power Index suggests that the three major parties have comparable scores on the Index, with the Conservatives registering 54 points out of a possible 100, the Liberals 53 points and the NDP 52 points. The Green Party of Canada scored 32 points while the BQ scored 27 points (QC only).