Over the past year, as Republicans and Democrats have been posturing, preparing and strategizing for the U.S. election, a number of issues have simmered and sometimes bubbled over. The Keystone XL pipeline, the Arab Spring, violent anti-U.S. rallies in the Middle East, the threat of terrorism -- all these issues and more have gripped headlines and found their way into the talking points of U.S. political leaders.
But now, with the parties ramping up their final push to the November election and Barack Obama and Mitt Romney focusing like laser beams on the ultimate prize -- the White House -- one issue, and one issue only, will dominate: the economy.
"First and foremost, and this is <em>the</em> issue, if there's going to be one, is the economy," said Brandon Tozzo, a PhD candidate and professor at Queen's University. "It's taxes, it's the role of government in the economy. Should there be more stimulus? Should there be more tax cuts? What's the deficit and how does the American economy get growing again?
With the U.S. still struggling to emerge from the 2008 recession, crippled by record debt levels and some of the highest unemployment rates in the nation's history, Americans are certain to be voting for the candidate they believe will best benefit their pocketbook.
With that in mind, here are the top five issues that will dominate the next month of electioneering:
The U.S. deficit
With the U.S. deficit currently hovering around US$14 trillion, the candidates need to spell out their plans for reducing the deficit and bringing America back from the brink of fiscal collapse. Tozzo said the candidate who can best sell his plan will have a good chance at winning over undecided voters.
“On this issue Democrats and Republicans couldn’t be further apart. The Democrats want a mix of spending cuts and tax increases, particularly on the wealthiest of Americans, and they believe that could get them on the road to fiscal solvency,” Tozzo said.
“The Republicans want to focus on spending cuts and massive reform of entitlement programs … and they believe that will get them on the road to recovery. The real contentious debate is over taxes -- whether to increase taxes or not (as a means of reducing the deficit).”
Taxes
By most assessments, regardless of which party ends up governing the country, American needs to raise taxes, or dramatically curtail spending on expensive entitlement programs, in order to get the economy back on track.
While Obama and the Democrats are seeking a mixed approach that does a little of both, Romney and the Republicans are promoting a plan that leaves taxes alone and instead focuses on spending cuts.
“It’s really just a question of whether the government, through cutting spending and programs, can get the economy going again or can tax cuts alone do it. So that’s really the issue,” Tozzo said.
Jobs
A recent U.S. jobless report showed a decrease in the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits in September hit 339,000, down from forecasts of around 370,000 claims that were expected. The number also marked the lowest number of new claims since February 2008, and it brought the U.S. unemployment rate to 7.8 per cent, the lowest it’s been since Obama took office.
But a positive blip in an otherwise dreary year of economic news may do little to sway the votes of those still looking for work, Tozzo said. For those who can’t find a job, the candidate who can best convince them that there is hope on the horizon has the best chance of winning their vote, Tozzo said.
“We have to keep in mind the unemployment rate is around 8 per cent but it’s 11 and 14 per cent for Latinos and blacks respectively, so it’s very high unemployment and it’s very high for young people as well. So if you’re living in your parents’ basement, your main issue is not an attack on an embassy but whether you can get a job.”
Foreign policy
While Afghanistan and Iraq have faded out of the headlines over the past year, foreign policy and America’s role in the world, and the threats it faces from abroad, continue to be major issues for many Americans. While they pale in comparison to domestic employment and economic concerns, they are still likely to make an appearance in the next few weeks, according to Tozzo.
“Foreign policy, especially with what’s been going on in the Middle East, with the Arab Spring and the bombing in Libya, that’s an issue. But these issues tend to target certain demographics in the U.S., whereas the economy covers pretty much everyone,” he said.
“If you can’t find a job, that affects you more than if there’s an ambassador killed in Libya. So these are other minor issues that have been in the headlines but the election sound bite is going to be: ‘It’s the economy stupid.’”
Immigration
Perhaps more than foreign policy, immigration is an issue where votes truly do hang in the balance. There are an estimated 20-30 million, mostly-Hispanic illegal immigrants currently living in the U.S., and their plight affects many more.
Many of these immigrants tend to fill roles in lower-end service jobs, as cleaners, nannies or labourers, but do so without entitlement rights or the possibility of citizenship.
The Dream Act, which Obama supports, would open the door to citizenship as a possibility for many of those immigrants, but the issue is controversial and deeply opposed by factions of both parties, and in southern states such as Texas and Arizona, which border on Mexico.
Hispanic voters comprise a massive chunk of the electorate. The candidate who can convince them that he has the best plan for dealing with illegals could see a significant boost in the polls, Tozzo said.
“They follow incredibly fluctuating voting patterns and they both want to get it, and it will make or break them in Colorado and New Mexico and Nevada,” he said.
