The Liberals and the Conservatives are gripped in a close race, according to the latest tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.
The latest numbers, which were released on Oct. 8, show:
- The Liberals at 33.5 per cent support nationally
- The Conservatives at 31.6 per cent
- The NDP at 24.2 per cent
- The Greens at 4.6 per cent
Respondents were asked "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?"
Of those who picked the Liberals as their top choice, 46 per cent said the NDP were their second choice. Of those who named the Conservatives as their top choice, 39 per cent said they had no second choice.
Of those who picked the NDP first, 47 per cent said they would choose the Liberals second.
And when asked a series of independent questions on whether they would consider or not consider voting for each of the federal parties:
- 49.3 per cent said they would consider voting Liberal
- 41.4 per cent said they would consider voting NDP
- 40.9 per cent said they would consider voting Conservative
- 24.3 per cent said they would consider voting Green
- In Quebec, 30.2 per cent said they would consider voting Bloc Quebecois
Poll methodology
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,087 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Harper, Trudeau close on preferred PM measure
The latest tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and The Globe and Mail shows Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau in a close race on the preferred prime minister measure, with NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair in third.
The latest numbers, which were released Oct. 8, show:
- 32.6 per cent of respondents named Harper as their preferred prime minister
- 30.8 per cent preferred Trudeau
- 19.9 per cent preferred Mulcair
Among the other federal party leaders, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May had 4.9 per cent support, while Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe had 2.2 per cent support.
Survey respondents were asked: "Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for prime minister?"
The results show the race between Harper and Trudeau remains tight, while Mulcair's numbers have stabilized after several days of consecutive decline.
Despite Mulcair's results in the preferred PM survey, a series of independent questions about each party leader show there is still a significant level of personal goodwill for the NDP leader. Survey results indicate Mulcair is statistically tied with Trudeau and Harper, on a measure of which leaders are perceived to have the qualities of a good political leader.
The full results show:
- 55.5 per cent support for Trudeau
- 55.1 per cent support for Mulcair
- 54.1 per cent support for Harper
- 34.7 per cent support for May
Survey methodology
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Full poll and survey at Nanos Research
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