Poilievre will ‘find a seat,’ but bigger question is what comes next: strategist

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The Conservative Party of Canada made some strides in the latest federal election, but what’s next for Leader Pierre Poilievre, who lost his seat Monday night?

A Conservative strategist, who called the election “obviously one for the history books,” says the former MP for the Ottawa riding of Carleton will find his way back into the House of Commons, but what will be more interesting to watch is what happens next.

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Jamie Ellerton told CTV News Channel Tuesday morning, after it was announced that the longtime incumbent lost to his Liberal counterpart, that Poilievre will “find a seat to run in to get back into the House.”

What happens when a leader loses their riding?

Traditionally, party leaders are expected to have a seat in the House or to seek one “as soon as possible,” according to the House of Commons Procedure and Practice. But just how “soon” is “possible” has varied in the past.

If the leader is not a member of Parliament, the party usually chooses a member who acts as party leader in the House until the leader is elected in a byelection.

There is precedent at different levels of politics in Canada for finding a place for party leaders without a seat, including those who’ve lost in their riding but won the election. One example is from the 2013 provincial election in British Columbia, when then-party leader Christy Clark lost her seat, but her Liberal party won the election. What can happen is a riding will be selected, an elected official steps aside, and a byelection is triggered in order to return the party leader to government – in Clark’s case, to the provincial legislative assembly.

Federally, Joe Clark was elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party when the previous leader resigned in 1998, but did not have a seat at the time, so MP Elsie Wayne served as leader until Clark was elected in a byelection nearly two years later. A similar story involves former NDP leader Jack Layton, who took over leadership in January 2003 but didn’t become an MP until the summer of 2004.

‘Crowbarring’ Poilievre out?

It was not immediately clear whether the federal Conservatives have any ridings in mind where Poilievre could run to become a member of Parliament again.

Ellerton noted the City of Ottawa went “resoundingly red,” in contrast to the bluer and more rural Ottawa Valley.

What was clear, according to CTV News political commentator Scott Reid, who served as director of communications for former Liberal prime minister Paul Martin, is that Poilievre is not planning to resign.

In a speech conceding to Mark Carney’s Liberals, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced he would step down from the position once an interim leader can be appointed, but Poilievre made no such statement in his concession remarks.

“Yes, he lost the election – an election that people thought he was going to ride to triumph just a couple of short months ago – but whether he’s been defeated in his own backyard or not, Pierre Poilievre made it plain last night,” Reid said in an interview on CTV News Channel.

“He intends to force another election as fast as possible, he is focused on the mission, which for him since the time he was a teenager was, ‘Get Pierre Poilievre elected prime minister,’ and that mission continues on.”

Reid said there may be some in the party who blame their leader for blowing what he called “a gigantic 26-point lead,” and who may want Poilievre out. But, he said, “I don’t think they’re going to have any success crowbarring this guy out, and I think he’s going to have enough strength in caucus and in the party to stay right where he is.”

‘Canadians fed up with politics’

Ellerton chalked Poilievre’s loss at home to a few things, including that “the absolute collapse of the NDP, especially in Ontario … led to some weird results.”

He said the “bigger question” for the party right now is what strategy it will adopt when MPs get back to work.

“I think all parties have to really take a serious look at (the election results) and not rush to conclusions,” Ellerton said.

“If you’re the Conservatives right now, I think you have to read the room. I don’t think there’s a real strong desire amongst Canadians to go back to the polls really fast; I think Canadians are kind of fed up with politics right now. A lot of Canadians were unsure and held their breath in casting their ballot this past week when they voted Liberal or Conservative, that two-party choice.”

His recommendation for the party is to focus on supporting the government in specific measures, such as infrastructure projects, a move he said he believes would help “boost the Conservative party’s credibility in the eyes of its doubters who, frankly, voted Liberal this past campaign.”