'We are in for more terrorism, not less,' warns Canadian terror expert amid Syria's political chaos

Editor's note: W5 was recently in Syria for a documentary focusing on the country's notorious prisons, where thousands of accused high-ranking members of ISIS, including some Canadians, were being held. W5 Managing Editor Avery Haines spoke with a Canadian expert on what the collapse of the Assad regime, and the likely release of these prisoners, means for global security.

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has plunged Syria into turmoil, creating a dangerous power vacuum that experts warn could reignite the global threat of ISIS.

The “ticking time bomb” of prisons holding thousands of suspected ISIS members in northeast Syria has become even more unstable.

While prisons once controlled by Assad’s regime are being liberated, fears are mounting about the stability of dozens of makeshift prisons run by the U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in northeast Syria. These prisons hold upwards of 10,000 suspected ISIS militants, many of whom have been detained, without charge for years.

“If you are the ISIS leadership, you’ve basically been handed an opportunity and a silver platter and this could in fact enhance your ability to carry out terrorist attacks,” warned Phil Gurski, a retired Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) senior analyst.

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“Once you get instability in an area…there is no governance, and as a consequence these prisons could empty tomorrow, and that means we’re going to have a lot of pretty nasty characters who in all likelihood will rejoin ISIS,” he said.

The threat of prison breaks

A man breaks the lock of a cell in the infamous Saydnaya military prison, just north of Damascus, Syria on Dec. 9, 2024. Crowds are gathered to enter the prison, known as the 'human slaughterhouse,' after thousands of inmates were released following the rebels' overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

The makeshift prisons in northeast Syria, often referred to as “mini Guantanamo Bays,” have long been vulnerable, and counterterrorism experts have repeatedly warned about the risks they pose.

In 2022, ISIS launched a sophisticated prison break at the al-Sina’a prison in Hasaka, killing150 Kurdish soldiers and freeing 400 suspected high-ranking ISIS fighters.

W5 recently travelled through the region documenting both the human rights and security concerns at the prisons.

An admitted Canadian ISIS sniper held in one of northeast Syria’s highest-security prisons has issued a stark warning about the potential resurgence of the terror group.

In a recent interview with W5 at Panorama Prison in Hasaka, Canadian ISIS sniper Muhammed Ali issued his own warning about the escalating threat.

He claimed that even more “hard core” groups were forming in the region. “This doesn’t take a rocket scientist or a genius to figure out…what’s going to happen in this area..it’s a vicious cycle of war,” he said.

“ISIS isn’t stupid,” Gurski said. “If they see an opportunity to spring some of their members from prison, they are going to go ahead and do that.

A ready-made army

The chaos in Syria has created a perfect storm for ISIS to regroup and grow stronger. Experts fear that the thousands of detainees in these prisons could serve as a ready-made army for the terror group.

A W5 documentary on the instability in the region highlighted the call from counterterrorism experts and the U.S. government for foreign nations to repatriate their citizens. Many detainees in these prisons are foreigners and their continued presence in northeast Syria is viewed as a global security concern.

(CTV W5)

U.S. strikes

On Sunday, the U.S. carried out massive airstrikes on 75 ISIS targets in the Syrian desert, sending a message to the terror group and attempting to curb their momentum amid the chaos.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned on Monday that ISIS will likely try to use this period of instability to regain strength.

“History shows how quickly moments of promise can descend into conflict and violence,” Blinken said at a State Department event. “ISIS will try to use this period to re-establish its capabilities, to create safe havens. As our precision strikes over the weekend demonstrate, we are determined not to let that happen.”

A critical moment

As Syria’s political instability deepens, Gurski warned: “The situation right now strikes me as very ripe. We are in for more terrorism, not less.”

W5 series:

• Part one: Canada's least wanted man: A family's long and lonely fight to bring their son home from Syria
• Part two: 'Let me rot in Canada,' pleads Canadian ISIS suspect from secret Syrian prison
• Part three: Inside Syria's toughest prison holding accused high-ranking ISIS members
• Part four: 'I never took part in beheadings': Canadian ISIS sniper has warning about future of terror group

With files from the Associated Press and Reuters