Surprise swing state? Iowa poll has Harris suddenly leading

A surprise poll result out of Iowa by a respected pollster, released just days before the U.S. election, is calling into question whether the state is as solidly red as it once seemed.

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Based on comfortable victories in the past two elections and polls leading up to Tuesday’s election, Donald Trump had seemed almost certain to win the state.

But a new poll released Saturday has Kamala Harris with a sudden three-point lead in Iowa, a result news outlets and the pollster themselves are describing as a “shock.”

Though it’s just one poll, it was conducted by someone who has been described as the “best pollster in politics” and the “gold standard” for polling.

J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., is known for predicting surprise results like Barack Obama winning the Iowa caucuses in 2008.

And when only a handful of states seem to be close races, the possibility of an easy Republican win suddenly flipping in favour of the Democrats has people turning their heads.

Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll between Oct. 28–31 for the Des Moines Register, found that 47 per cent of likely voters chose Harris, compared to 44 per cent for Trump.

The poll surveyed 808 likely voters in Iowa and has a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points.

Iowa was won handily by Trump in the previous two elections by a margin of 8.2 percentage points in 2020 and 9.5 points in 2016.

Earlier polls in 2024 also showed Trump with a large lead over Joe Biden, and though the gap became more narrow when Harris became the Democratic nominee, Trump had still led in other polls, including one conducted by Selzer & Co. in September.

Swing states

In the U.S. presidential election, states each have a certain number of electoral votes, and the winner of each state generally receives all of the state’s votes. Polls show that many states are foregone conclusions, with candidates almost certain to win on election night.

But some are too close to call heading into election night. Those states — called swing states — are the key to gaining the most electoral votes and winning the presidency.

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In general, however, Iowa has not been considered a swing state in 2024.

The Cook Political Report, for example, has Iowa as “Solidly Republican” as of Nov. 1, a firm rating that almost always sees the predicted party winning the state.

And though Iowa is relatively small — it has six electoral votes out of a total of 538 — the state has potentially become one that has a chance to go either way on Nov. 5.

Other toss-up states include Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6).

Reactions to the “shock” poll

Speaking to the Des Moines Register, J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. and conductor of the poll said she “was as shocked as just about anybody” with the results.

Trump, campaigning in Pennsylvania on Sunday, dismissed the poll, calling it “a fake poll” and saying “I’m not down in Iowa.”