TORONTO -- When the United Kingdom officially leaves the European Union at 11 pm London time on Friday, some changes will be immediate and others will roll out over the months, years and perhaps decades to come.
When Big Ben chimes 11 times, it will usher in an 11-month Brexit transition period that will last until the final day of 2020. During that time, Britain will continue to obey the rules of the EU and pay into its budget, while negotiating a new trade and security deal with the now 27-member EU.
The departure of Britain from the EU comes after residents voted in 2016, 52 per cent to 48 per cent in favour of leaving the economic and political union it joined in 1973. Brexit backers, led by U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, say the country will forge a new age of renewal and independence. Anti-Brexit forces say the move will set back the U.K. economically and politically.
However one looks at it, this is all new territory. No country has left the EU in its 62-year history, so there is no roadmap for making the shift from member to competitor.
What changes beginning today:
1. The U.K. will start formal trade negotiations with countries around the world, including Canada, the U.S., India and China, along with its former EU partners which account for 46 per cent of U.K. trade.
2. U.K. citizens obtaining new passports will no longer receive the burgundy document stamped with ’European Union.’ It’s expected that by mid-2020, new passports will return to the British blue and gold design last issued more than 30 years ago.
3. A new 50-pence Brexit coin enters circulation. It bears the date 31 January 2020 and the inscription: “Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations.”
4. The U.K.’s 73 members of the European Parliament lose their seats because this day marks Britain’s exit from the EU’s political agencies, committees and legislative bodies.
5. Johnson will require an invitation to join EU Council summits.
Changes to come:
1. The European Court of Justice continues to have final say over legal disputes between the EU and Britain during transition but a new system needs to be created.
2. New deals covering law enforcement, data sharing and security must be hammered out.
3. For now, U.K. citizens will be treated as EU nationals while travelling, but that is expected to change after transition.
4. EU drivers’ licences and European Health Insurance Cards will continue to be valid during transition but are subject to negotiations for 2021 and beyond.
5. U.K. citizens will be able to live and work anywhere in the EU – and vice versa - during transition, but that is also up for discussion.
6. Those accused of crimes in the U.K. won’t be extradited from Germany, which only allows for extradition to other countries of the EU.
Outstanding questions
“I do think that the U.K. has underestimated the complexity of reconfiguring its relationship with the EU,” said Armand de Mestral, a professor emeritus of law at McGill University. “Johnson wants his cake and to eat it, too. He doesn’t want to be beholden to the EU rules, but he wants to continue the trade access.”
Mestral points to the case of Switzerland, which has never joined the EU, and which must constantly negotiate deals with the bloc.
“This has been going for a very long time. Every question requires a negotiation.”
Everything from environmental standards to banking, and food safety regulations to airline service, will be subject to new deals between the U.K. and all its potential trading partners.
“The U.K. will be negotiating all these deals at once and it hasn’t had trade negotiators for a long time,” said Mestral, who knows of a number of Canadian negotiators and lawyers who have been offered jobs in Britain.
Also at issue is the status of English as the working language of the EU without Britain at the table, says Mestral.
“I think we’ll see both Germany and France looking to play down the use of English.”
Brexit also opens the possibility of Northern Ireland and Scotland, which both voted to remain in the EU, ramping up agitation to leave the U.K., says Mestral.
“There is a lot of anger over this.”
