TORONTO -- The Iranian government’s admission that they unintentionally shot down a Ukrainian plane, killing all 176 aboard, could weaken the country’s position in their conflict with the U.S., an expert says.
Founding director of the Center for Global Policy Kamran Bokhari told CTV News Channel that “the Iranians were trying to leverage the international criticism of the Trump administration for the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.
“Now with this admission that yes, they did shoot down and kill the 176 people, it really weakens the Iranian position even further,” Bokhari said. “And so the question is, will (the international community) be able to … steer Iran towards the negotiating table with the United States, or are we looking at further escalation?”
The U.S. killed Soleimani in a drone strike in Iraq earlier this month, a move that was slammed by the international community. U.S. President Donald Trump cited an “imminent threat,” as the cause for the strike, but a week later, confusion still remains over what that threat was.
On Wednesday, Iran fired ballistic missiles at a base housing U.S. troops in Iraq, without causing any casualties. Later that same day, a Ukrainian flight leaving Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport was downed, killing all 176 people aboard, including 57 Canadians.
The Canadian government, citing intelligence they had obtained, stated that the flight was shot down by a surface-to-air missile.
Iranian officials denied the possibility that their forces shot down the plane for days, but on Saturday, the Iranian government confirmed the flight was “targeted unintentionally due to human error.”
Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh of the Guard’s aerospace program said that troops at the anti-aircraft battery mistook the Ukrainian flight for a cruise missile.
“It speaks volumes about sort of the operational protocols of the Iranian military,” Bokhari told CTV News Channel. “Mistaking a commercial jetliner for a cruise missile is pretty off, it’s not just an error … and it speaks volumes about just how bad their command and control centre is, which is very dangerous for a country that is behaving in a very bellicose way.”
Speaking from Ottawa on Saturday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Iran was complying with Canada’s request for visas, and that three had already been approved for investigators. Those team members were set to arrive in Tehran Saturday, according to Trudeau, with more to follow in the coming weeks.
“Canada and the world still have many questions,” Trudeau told media. “Questions that must be answered.”
Bokhari said the pressure from other countries could create a conundrum for Iran.
“But it’s not every day that a country’s military shoots down an airliner, and considering that governments like Canada want to be part of the investigation, this is a lot of pressure on the Iranians to open up their doors and allow access, something that the Iranians want to avoid at all cost,” Bokhari said.
However, Trudeau said he was confident in Iran cooperating with Canadians, adding that he took Iran’s admission of responsibility for the downing of the airliner as a sign that it was “likely that they will be full participants and fully allow a credible, independent, international investigation with all partners involved.”
One complication moving forward is Canada’s relationship with Iran -- or lack of one. Canada has not had formal diplomatic relations with Iran since 2012, when Canada labelled Iran a state sponsor of terrorism.
“Though this does handicap Canada, it increases the leverage that Canada has to be part of this investigation.” Bokhari said.
He added that Canada may need to “rely on Russia and China to put pressure on Tehran to say, Hey, you need to do a thorough investigation,’” as they will be better placed due to having “a far greater relationship with the Iranians.”
With Ukraine demanding compensation for the plane and Canadians mourning dozens of friends and family, a conflict that started out between U.S. and Iran has quickly become more complicated.
Bokhari said the potential for de-escalation is there, but it isn’t certain.
Trudeau told media Saturday that in a phone call with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, he had asked the president to commit to “working with us and international partners to continue to de-escalate tensions in the region.”
