How exit polls work and what they will tell us on election night
What are exit polls? They’re a set of surveys that ask voters whom they voted for, as well as additional questions about their political opinions, the factors they considered in the election and their own backgrounds more broadly.
That helps us better understand who came out to vote, how different groups of people voted and how they feel about some of the biggest issues of the campaign.
The earliest results from this year’s exit polls will be reported after 5 p.m. ET on Election Day. Data that could characterize the outcome of a race is not reported until after the polls have closed.
Exit polls are conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool on behalf of a consortium of media companies: CNN, ABC, CBS and NBC. They get their name because interviewers on Election Day are stationed outside roughly 500 polling locations throughout the country, where they conduct surveys with a randomly selected sample of voters who’ve just cast their ballots. The polling locations were themselves selected through random sampling, meaning the resulting interviews should be representative of Election Day voters across the state or nationally. The interviewers call back to report their results several times throughout the day – which means that the early numbers will likely change as more data comes in.
But the exit poll doesn’t start on Election Day: It also seeks to represent the views of the millions of Americans who cast their ballots before November 5. Interviewers are also posted at roughly 100 early in-person voting locations in some states.
And the results also include voters who cast early absentee ballots or voted by mail. This part of the electorate is reached by more traditional preelection surveys, which are conducted by calling, emailing and sending text messages to people chosen from lists of all registered voters.
In addition to the national exit poll, there are also exit polls conducted in specific states with key, competitive presidential or down-ballot races. This year, those states include Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin.
In-person exit polls are conducted using paper surveys that respondents fill out themselves; those reached by email or text message answer the questions online, while those reached by telephone answer questions asked by a live interviewer. Each exit poll includes about 20 to 25 questions and is designed to take around five minutes to complete. Each voter’s answers are anonymous.
Ultimately, exit polls will include interviews with tens of thousands of voters. That scope makes them a powerful tool for understanding the demographic profile and political views of voters in this year’s election. And their findings will eventually be weighted against the ultimate benchmark: the results of the elections themselves.
Even so, exit polls are still polls, with margins for error – which means they’re most useful when treated as estimates, rather than precise measurements. That’s particularly true for the earliest exit poll numbers, which won’t yet have been adjusted to match the final election results.
CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Labour minister unveils steps to end Canada Post strike
Canada Post workers began their strike four weeks ago, halting mail and package deliveries across the country. Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon said he hopes work will resume as early as next week.
'Little girl deserves justice': Gallery erupts in anger as charges stayed against driver who killed child
In a tense courtroom, a judge stayed the charge against a Saskatoon woman who hit and killed a nine-year-old girl.
Skier who went missing at Sun Peaks Resort found dead
In a tragic turn of events, the 68-year-old man who went missing while skiing at Sun Peaks Resort earlier this week has been found dead, the RCMP confirmed Friday.
Canada's homicide rate down in most provinces, with 2 exceptions
The homicide rate is declining in Canada, and the country's three largest cities all saw double-digit percentage decreases in homicides per capita, according to data released this week.
Dreaming of a white Christmas? Here are the Canadian cities where snow has been a sure thing
With fewer than two weeks remaining until Christmas Day, weather forecasts and snowfall projections are starting to take shape but have yet to be finalized for cities across Canada.
'They believe in diplomacy, good luck': Doug Ford doubles down on energy threat as some premiers distance themselves
Doug Ford is standing behind his threat to stop providing the U.S. with electricity in response to president-elect Donald Trump's promised tariffs, even as several other premiers publicly distance themselves from the stance.
'He was done with shopping': Video shows dog laying on horn in B.C. mall parking lot
Malls can be hectic around the holidays, and sometimes you just can't wait to get home – whether you're on two legs or four.
Trump wants to turn the clock on daylight saving time
U.S. president-elect Donald Trump wants to turn the lights out on daylight saving time.
Mysterious googly eyes go viral after appearing on public art in Oregon
Googly eyes have been appearing on sculptures around the central Oregon city of Bend, delighting many residents and sparking a viral sensation covered widely by news outlets and featured on a popular late-night talk show.
Local Spotlight
'He was done with shopping': Video shows dog laying on horn in B.C. mall parking lot
Malls can be hectic around the holidays, and sometimes you just can't wait to get home – whether you're on two legs or four.
140-pound dog strolls solo into Giant Tiger store in Stratford, Ont.
A furry, four-legged shopper was spotted in the aisles of a Giant Tiger store in Stratford, Ont. on Sunday morning.
North Pole post: N.S. firefighters collect letters to Santa, return them by hand during postal strike
Fire departments across Nova Scotia are doing their part to ensure children’s letters to Santa make their way to the North Pole while Canada Post workers are on strike.
'Creatively incredible': Regina raised talent featured in 'Wicked' film
A professional dancer from Saskatchewan was featured in the movie adaptation of Wicked, which has seen significant success at the box office.
Montreal man retiring early after winning half of the $80 million Lotto-Max jackpot
Factor worker Jean Lamontagne, 63, will retire earlier than planned after he won $40 million on Dec. 3 in the Lotto-Max draw.
Man, 99, still at work 7 decades after opening eastern Ontario Christmas tree farm
This weekend is one of the busiest of the year for Christmas tree farms all over the region as the holidays approach and people start looking for a fresh smell of pine in their homes.
Saskatoon honours Bella Brave with birthday celebration
It has been five months since Bella Thompson, widely known as Bella Brave to her millions of TikTok followers, passed away after a long battle with Hirschsprung’s disease and an auto-immune disorder.
Major Manitoba fossil milestones highlight the potential for future discoveries in the province
A trio of fossil finds through the years helped put Manitoba on the mosasaur map, and the milestone of those finds have all been marked in 2024.
The 61st annual Christmas Daddies Telethon raises more than $559,000 for children in need
The 61st annual Christmas Daddies Telethon continued its proud Maritime tradition, raising more than $559,000 for children in need on Saturday.