Democrats feel confidence slip away as economy dominates U.S. midterm elections

WASHINGTON -

Americans head to the polls next week in critical midterm elections that could define or imperil the remainder of President Joe Biden’s agenda – and it’s not looking good for his party.

The economy has become the dominant issue in the campaign’s home stretch, creating worrisome headwinds for Democrats, while boosting the odds of Republicans winning control of Congress.

Runaway inflation is driving up prices from food to fuel, and Americans appear to be voting with their wallets. Several polls suggest they think Republicans are more trusted to fix the economy.

“Unfortunately for Democrats, the economy supersedes everything else” Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s (UVA) Center for Politics, told CTV National News.

Sabato publishes UVA’s “Crystal Ball,” an influential guide analyzing U.S. election and polling data down to each district.

In an interview with CTV National News at UVA’s historic campus in Charlottesville, Va., Sabato forecasts “a tide pulling in the Republican direction.”

“It’s very easy to run against an incumbent administration when the economic conditions are not good,” he said.

Despite a strong labour market and a summer of economic growth, Americans are facing rising interest rates, decades-high inflation and talk of recession.

“The president’s messaging on the economy has been indecipherable. I think it’s hurt Democrats. I think it’s hurt [Biden]. He was given bad advice,” he said.

Earlier this summer, Democrats seized on the U.S. Supreme Court ruling overturning abortion rights. The party has made protecting women’s rights and saving democracy a centrepiece of their campaign.

Republicans, meantime, have mostly avoided the abortion debate, instead focusing on the flailing economy and flooding local TV markets with advertisements.

The pressure is being felt by Democrats in tight campaigns.

Mark Kelly, a Senate Democrat seeking re-election in Arizona, distanced himself from Biden in a recent TV ad.

“When Joe Biden gets it wrong, I call him out” he says in the ad, looking into the camera.

In response, Biden has been shifting his message to reflect the economic anxiety.

“Inflation is still hurting people,” he said at the White House to assembled guests.

“We’re making real progress”, he said, insisting the economy is improving.

Currently, Democrats hold razor-thin majorities in the House and Senate. Many polls suggest Republicans will win control of the House, but the Senate remains a toss-up.

Historically, the president’s party is punished in midterm elections. Democrats felt optimistic at the start of campaign season, but growing economic trouble appears to have soured their confidence.