Canada's immigration crackdown could make for a more willing partner in Trump

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and U.S. President Donald Trump arrive to take part in a plenary session at the NATO Summit in Watford, Hertfordshire, England, on Dec. 4, 2019 (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick)

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has yet to take the oath of office, but already his plans on illegal immigration and his solution to this vexing problem are coming into stark view.

The appointment of hardliners such as Stephen Miller as deputy White House Chief of Staff for Policy and Tom Homan as the border czar makes it abundantly clear that deportations of thousands, if not millions, of undocumented immigrants are imminent.

This quixotic policy, along with potentially punishing tariffs to incentivize neighbouring Mexico to acquiesce, will foment tensions and potentially cause a massive break with one of America’s closest trading partners.

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However, recent immigration crackdowns in Canada could move the close allies even closer, making for a more robust and bountiful relationship during Trump's second four-year term. Recent moves by Ottawa on immigration could be the North Star that guides and even informs a nascent framework, still in the developmental stages, by an incoming administration bent on taking a hardline approach to the challenging issue.

Canada has turned away nearly 4,000 people per month on average in 2024, a 20 per cent  increase over the 3,271 average in 2023. Moreover, immigration officials have refused more visitor visa applications per month than it has accepted.

In fact, in July of 2024, Ottawa turned away 5,853 foreign travellers; the most rejections since January 2019. Data also shows a sharp decline in approved visitor visas as well as study and work permits, which had previously reached record highs in 2022 and 2023. With such an about face on immigration shown by Canada, the incoming Trump administration should be a more welcome and willing partner towards its northern neighbour. 

Being on one accord will undoubtedly go a long way in glossing over any lingering tensions between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President-elect Trump, who certainly has not forgotten Trudeau’s hot-mic moment, derisively ridiculing him during a NATO Summit reception. An imbroglio that led Trump to abruptly leave after learning other leaders were secretly taunting him. Now, America’s closest ally is firmly planted and leading in the area that will be the bellwether for a Trump second term.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau talk as then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, right, takes his seat during a NATO round table meeting in Watford, Hertfordshire, England on Dec. 4, 2019 (AP Photo/Frank Augstein)

The U.S.-Canada relationship is sacrosanct, an alliance that has stood firm for 150 years. Moreover, the two Western hemisphere powers share the longest border between any two nations in the world. The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) serves as the cornerstone of this military interoperability that defends all of North America from air and missile threats.

Moreover, the two countries are each other’s largest trading partners, with nearly $3.6 billion in goods and services crossing the border everyday. Still, no other issue will be more salient, more pressing, and more consequential to maintaining these ties than the issue of immigration.

According to exit polls, immigration was a key driver for voters who supported Trump’s candidacy. Now, he intends to carry out his campaign promise of mass deportations, which includes wielding U.S. power over his neighbours to cut off the flow of migrants into the U.S.

Then presidential nominee Donald Trump speaking during a campaign rally on Oct. 11, 2024 in Aurora, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)

In fact, the war of words is already raising the stakes. Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard suggested the Mexican government could retaliate with its own tariffs on U.S. imports if the incoming Trump administration slaps tariffs on Mexican exports. "If you put 25% tariffs on me, I have to react with tariffs," said Ebrard, who served as Mexico's foreign minister during the first Trump administration. Clearly, both sides are gearing up for a possible trade war that will bring enormous economic cost to both sides.

However, Canada could find itself escaping the wrath of the Trump administration as both countries will be simultaneously leading aggressive immigration crackdowns. Also befitting Trump's strange desire to indulge in hyperbole, no doubt the President-elect will have his cult following of MAGA loyalists believing that it was Trump himself that influenced Ottawa to move forward with such stringent and exacting restrictions.

However, like all things with Trump, any affinity or goodwill most certainly comes with an expiration date. The mercurial Commander-in-Chief’s penchant for unpredictability is perhaps the only predictable trait that can be expected over the next four years. Nevertheless, even though the two nations are deeply intertwined on trade, defence, and global health, among other areas, it is migration that will be the lynchpin that keeps Trump’s ire at bay (for now).

Outgoing President Joe Biden said “the United States has no closer friend, partner, or ally than Canada. Over the past 150 years, our two countries have built one of the closest and most extensive relationships…The U.S.-Canada partnership benefits not only our people, but the world – and by working together, there is nothing we cannot achieve.”

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That enduring partnership will now be put to the test like never before. Much like Trump's first term in office, his return to power coupled with calls for mass deportations are already having deleterious effects on border policy throughout the hemisphere, with Canada especially impacted. Christopher Sands, Director of the Canada project at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars, in Washington, DC states: This is a challenge both countries can overcome better together by confirming identity, coordinating on-border responses…and even comparing notes on visa applicants.

Then presidential candidate Donald Trump refers to charts about immigration while speaking during the Republican National Convention on July 18, 2024, in Milwaukee (AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson)

It is the hope that Trudeau and Trump can thaw their frosty relationship and work together for the greater good of both nations as well as those fleeing impossible situations. The migrant crisis now represents more than a vexing political issue but also a geopolitical opportunity. Both leaders are hoping for similar outcomes and are prepared to enact aggressive action to confront the problem.

Like it or not, the United States and Canada are in this together. Immigration is the tie that binds and as long as Ottawa continues to take stringent measures, President-elect Trump’s predilection for rash and brazen attacks can, and should, be directed elsewhere.

Eric Ham is a bestselling author and former congressional staffer in the U.S. Congress. He served as a contributor to TheHill.com and The Washington Diplomat. He resides in Washington, DC.