TORONTO -- It’s a national party convention like no other in history with the Democratic Party feting its presumptive White House ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris entirely virtually for four days.
The devastation of COVID-19 means no balloons, cheering crowds, or waving signs as the party formally endorses its nominees. But experts say that may mean less theatre and more persuasion as the party works to energize and mobilize its base, polish its message, sway some undecideds and even woo some disaffected Republicans.
Experts predict the two hours of televised events each night until Thursday will be something of an infomercial, less built around the electricity of addressing rabid supporters and more about directly connecting with voters both inside and outside the Democratic party.
Biden, who leads in some polls by 9 points, will deliver his acceptance speech Thursday.
CTVNews.ca asked three political experts what the Democrats need to focus on to set its ticket on a path to victory Nov. 3.
Define Biden as a president
After eight years serving as vice-president to former president Barack Obama, Biden is widely known but many don’t know much about him, says Brad Bannon, a Democratic political consultant and pollster based in Washington, D.C.
The campaign needs to define who Biden is and what he brings to the table. “They have to make strong points about why he’d be a good president. It can’t just be about beating up on Donald Trump,” Bannon told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview.
Put Harris in the forefront
The Democratic vice-presidential nominee and California senator ticks a lot of boxes for many Democrats. She’s a woman, she’s Black and Asian, and she’s well-educated and outspoken.
She vigorously challenged Biden in a presidential candidate debate before she dropped out of the race in December, said Bannon. “I think that shows that Biden is comfortable with strong, aggressive women… If Biden wins it will come with overwhelming support from women.”
One possible downside for Harris is her background as a district attorney in San Francisco and attorney general in California. In the context of the protests around Black Lives Matter and defunding police, that could alienate some leftist Democrats.
Be succinct, clear and thoughtful
Trump is invigorated by cheering crowds at his rallies. Biden and Harris need to shine in a quiet, almost one-on-one environment, speaking directly to Americans. Speeches will be short and Harris, who is an eloquent speaker, will be used as an advantage, says Bannon.
“Instead of a single, long-winded keynote on Wednesday, there will be 17 speakers speaking for a minute about why they support Biden and Harris.” And though shorter, without the long pauses for applause, speeches may have more substance.
Capitalize on Biden’s image
If the Democrats can take advantage of Biden’s image as “kindly uncle Joe” and develop him as a calm, reassuring and knowledgeable leader, that will paint a picture at odds with Trump, said Graham Dodds, who grew up in the U.S. and is a professor of political science at Concordia University in Montreal specializing in American politics.
The campaign will also repeatedly highlight Biden’s connection to former president Barack Obama, who remains very popular with Democrats, he told CTVNews.ca.
Address the age issue
There has been plenty of talk of Biden’s age (at 78 next January, he would be the oldest president ever to take office, though it’s worth noting he’s less than four years older than Trump) and Republicans, often led by Trump, are trying to make an issue of what they say are declining faculties and lack of stamina. This convention is a chance to take that on, said Renan Levine, who grew up in Philadelphia and now is an associate professor of political science at the University of Toronto.
But if there are gaffes and missteps, they will be costly, he told CTVNews.ca.
Bannon says Biden’s age and demeanour can be turned into an advantage. “I think one of the reasons Biden has an advantage over Trump is that Americans are tired of anger and division. The best message for Biden is that he would be a president with a bold plan and a steady hand.”
‘Jazz up’ young voters
This year’s virtual format will be more appealing to young voters, said Bannon, and that’s a key demographic for the Democrats. “Millennials are much more likely to engage online than they are with traditional TV. In fact, I think we may have seen the last of traditional, in-person conventions.”
And equally critical, said Levine, is amplifying their message amid a social media firestorm in which Democrats must consistently bat away an onslaught of counter-messages from the Trump administration, the Republican party, Trump supporters and the president himself.
Remember the pocketbook
Trump may have felt at the beginning of the year that things looked very good for his re-election, but the economic devastation of COVID-19 has changed all that, says Levine. “Trump’s popularity is weak and many Republicans are upset by his actions and his style of governance. So now you add the negative economic outcomes and that means Democrats have to all push the message that change needs to happen.”
But the economy could be considered Biden’s Achille’s heel, says Bannon. Polls show he holds significant advantages over Trump among Americans when it comes to fighting the pandemic, and handling race issues, the environment and health care. But Trump comes out on top on the economy.
“The old saw is still true, that people vote with their pocketbook. So the Democrats need to come out with a strong message about rebuilding the economy.”
Don’t go over the top
There is a significant portion of Americans who don’t appreciate attacks on the Oval Office, no matter who occupies it, says Levine. “So if you attack the office too much, it can create a backlash among those kinds of voters or moderates.”
Biden needs to take the high ground, presenting a calm and dignified demeanour, leaving more pointed assaults against Trump for other Democrats, and disaffected Republicans.
Then there is the question of what to criticize. Do you choose a scattershot approach or do you focus on one or two issues to hammer home? For the Republicans in 2016, Hillary Clinton’s emails became a rallying cry, whereas nothing in a series of scandals and gaffes for Trump ever seriously took hold, says Levine.
Build on the ‘country-before-party’ message of a faction of the Republic Party
This convention includes the unusual spectacle of endorsements from members of the opposing party, including former Ohio Republican Gov. John Kasich. It’s not unheard of – Michael Bloomberg, the former Republican mayor of New York City, spoke at the Democratic convention in 2016 and Joe Lieberman, a Democratic vice-presidential nominee in 2000, endorsed Republican candidate John McCain in 2008.
But still, in the history of conventions it’s “exceptionally rare” for prominent party members to appear at an opposing convention, says Levine. Some Republicans have been outspoken about their anyone-but-Trump stance.
The danger is that in trying to appeal too much to some elements of Republicans, the Democrats could further alienate progressives within their party who were lined up behind Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, says Dodds.
“So far, Biden seems to be doing a good job of keep the factions of the Democratic party together… that certainly was a lesson learned out of Clinton’s loss.”
Forget the undecideds
Only an estimated 4 to 5 per cent of American voters say they are undecided, says Levine, and given how highly polarized the country is, that means they are likely indifferent or unengaged. Instead, Democrats should focus on mobilizing their own base first, with a secondary eye on creating messages that will appeal to Republicans who don’t support Trump.
Biden and Harris, largely seen as centrist Democrats, have a real change to make significant inroads, says Levine.
Remember 2016
Many Democrats, especially the activist wing of the party, are “haunted by what happened in 2016,” says Levine. “There’s a little bit of ‘I told you so,’ from those Democrats who warned of the problems of the party before Donald Trump was elected.”
The sting of that loss, especially after being up six points in polls, will keep the Democrats fighting for every vote this time, says Dodds. “It’s not lost on anybody that Trump can afford to lose a couple of states he took last time, like Pennsylvania and Michigan, and still win it all.”
