PCs hold most support in Manitoba political landscape: poll

CTV Winnipeg: Manitoba NDP lag in support: poll Cheryl Holmes on findings from a new poll sponsored by CTV Winnipeg and the Winnipeg Free Press.

New research shows the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives hold a considerable lead in the province with a 12-point advantage over the governing NDP.

“Manitobans are looking for an alternative and we believe we are that, but we have to work hard to prove that,” said Brian Pallister, Manitoba PC party leader.

A CTV Winnipeg/Winnipeg Free Press poll conducted by Probe Research found 42 per cent of decided Manitoba voters support the PC party. This is a slight decrease from the 45 per cent support recorded by the party in June 2014.

30 per cent of decided voters said they would vote for the NDP in a hypothetical general election while 20 per cent would choose the Liberals, up four per cent since June.

Eight per cent of voters said they would support the Green Party or other parties not represented in the legislature.

"With younger voters getting involved and I think more people are starting to realize it's the older generation is starting to get just that, and there has to be a hand off, a transition at some point soon,” said Manitoba voter Milan Njegovan.

Support for the provincial NDP has slipped since the 2011 election, with 38 per cent support in this latest poll, compared to 52 per cent in 2011.

"Some of it really just has to do with the passage of time and the view that there should maybe be a change coming up," said Scott MacKay, president of Probe Research. "There are other incidents I think that you could look at including the PST increase."

According to the poll, the PC Party and the NDP are statistically tied in Winnipeg. Support for the NDP in Winnipeg has risen slightly to 38 per cent from 36 per cent in June. Thirty-five per cent would cast ballots for a PC candidate, down six per cent since June. Liberal support has risen four per cent since June to 21 per cent.

MacKay said the PCs continue to hold the lead they’ve had for more than a year.

Liberals often see a surge of supporters when NDP sees a downward movement, but the 20 per cent is “a much higher level then we normally see them at," he said.

“The Liberal brand nationally is quite robust right now, people are looking at the Liberal Party, they’re leading in all the national polls that I’m seeing and we do see a lot of this coattail effect always.”

Manitoba Liberal Party Leader, Rana Bokhari says the message amongst all Liberals remains the same.

"I think that most people distinguish between federal and provincial Liberals, but at the same time the Liberal banner is the Liberal banner and momentum on the federal level will always positively affect us," she said.

MacKay said Liberals can play the role of a major role.

“At 20 per cent, that’s just enough to start cascading seats towards the Conservatives that the NDP won narrowly last time,” he said.

Curtis Brown, vice-president at Probe Research, said Winnipeg is where the battleground for votes is in the province.

“If an election were held today, it looks like the Progressive Conservatives would win, but it would be fairly competitive in Winnipeg,” he said

Outside of Winnipeg, the PC Party leads the other parties with 53 per cent of voters’ support. The NDP has 18 per cent support while the Liberals hold a similar 19 per cent.

“Certainly the Liberal brand is alive and well nationally and I think that’s not hurting here, provincially,” said MacKay.

Across demographic sub-populations, the PCs continue to hold the most support in the province. In particular, 46 per cent of men would vote PC while 27 per cent would vote NDP and 19 per cent would vote Liberal. Fifty-four per cent of men aged 35-54 and 55 years and older support the PC Party. Twenty-eight per cent of men aged 18-34 would vote PC.

The PCs also have the majority of the support of middle-aged and older voters as well as high-income earners. The PCs lead over the NDP slightly among women with 38 per cent verses 33 per cent of voter support.

Overall, 17 per cent of voters surveyed said they were undecided or refused to say which party they would vote for in a hypothetical general election.

Polling firm Probe Research Inc. surveyed 1,009 people about party standings in Manitoba. The results are considered accurate 95 per cent of the time, within plus or minus three percentage points.

CTV Winnipeg contacted the provincial NDP but they did not comment Thursday on the poll.

- with a report from Cheryl Holmes