Polls differ ahead of Saskatchewan Party leadership vote

Polls differ ahead of Sask. Party leadership vote New polls from two separate research companies shed differing takes on who may next be leading Saskatchewan.

New polls from two separate research companies shed differing takes on who may next be leading Saskatchewan.

The polls, from Mainstreet Research and Insightrix Research, surveyed support among Saskatchewan Party members for the five candidates vying to lead the party. One, the Mainstreet survey, puts member support for Ken Cheveldayoff well ahead of the other leadership hopefuls, while the other poll, from Insightrix, puts Cheveldayoff neck-and-neck with Alanna Koch.

Mainstreet polls predict Cheveldayoff, Meili faceoff in next Sask. election

The Mainstreet Research poll surveying Saskatchewan Party members was one of three conducted by the polling firm. Another poll gauged Saskatchewan residents’ support for the province’s four major political parties, and the third surveyed how much support NDP leadership candidates Ryan Meili and Trent Wotherspoon have among the party’s membership.

Cheveldayoff holds the most support — 46.3 per cent — among the 452 Sask. Party members surveyed. Scott Moe trails in second with 21.5 per cent support, while Alanna Koch polls at 19.5 per cent.

For the opposition NDP, Meili has a lead of 25 per cent over Wotherspoon, according to the Mainstreet survey, which questioned 454 Saskatchewan NDP members.

“It looks very likely that the matchup will be Ken Cheveldayoff vs. Ryan Meili,” Mainstreet Research president and CEO Quito Maggi said in a statement, referring to the next provincial election.

The margin of error for the Sask. Party leadership survey is 4.57 per cent, while the NDP leadership survey carries a 4.55 per cent margin of error. Both are accurate 19 times out of 20.

The other poll, gauging the provincial political landscape, shows the Saskatchewan Party regaining a lead over the NDP.

The Sask. Party has nearly 51 per cent support among Saskatchewan voters, according to the poll. The Opposition NDP sits at 34.4 per cent, with the Liberals and Greens at nearly nine and six per cent, respectively.

“The landscape in Saskatchewan has shifted substantially since we last fielded in Saskatchewan,” Maggi said. “What was once a close race between the Sask. Party and the NDP has now returned to a more traditional fifteen point lead for the Wall government.”

The poll also found regional differences, with the NDP leading in Saskatoon and Regina by four and two points, respectively. The Sask. Party leads by 35.5 per cent in the rest of the province, according to the poll.

The poll surveyed 764 residents of the province by phone, all at least 18 years age, between Jan. 4 and 6. The margin of error is 3.54 per cent, accurate 19 times out of 20.

Insightrix poll puts Koch, Cheveldayoff neck-and-neck

Insightrix, partnering with CJME and CKOM, surveyed 1,004 Saskatchewan residents and 104 Saskatchewan Party members, asking which of the party’s five leadership candidates would make the best premier.

The numbers among provincial residents show Cheveldayoff, with 16 per cent support, ahead of the remaining four candidates — all of whom fall at or below nine per cent. But, among party members, he and Alanna Koch are statistically tied, with Koch’s 22 per cent landing just one percentage point higher than Cheveldayoff’s 21.

Most respondents in the Saskatchewan Party member survey overlapped into the provincial residents group.

The poll of the 1,004 provincial residents carries an estimated margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for the other poll, surveying the 104 Saskatchewan Party members, sits at plus or minus 9.6 percentage points. Both are accurate 19 times out of 20.