'You've got to feed the change beast': Experts look ahead to Liberal caucus retreat

With the federal Liberals set to meet for their annual caucus retreat this week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — and the party — need to be clear about their policy direction and open to change, according to two experts and an MP.

The group's pre-Parliament strategy meeting comes amid fallout from the end of the Liberal-NDP supply-and-confidence agreement, which NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced this week he had "ripped up" after more than two and a half years.

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The gathering — set to take place in Nanaimo, B.C., during the first half of this week — is meant to give the governing Liberals the opportunity to map strategy heading into the fall sitting, which starts Sept. 16.

And for the first time in years, the government will no longer be propped up by the NDP.

"What happens in caucus, stays in caucus," Liberal MP Julie Dzerowicz said in an interview with CTV News. "But I will say to you, I don't think I'm the only person that's saying we have to articulate a very clear vision that Canadians need to understand, and know, as we are preparing for the next election."

"I'm hoping that we have a year, but it could be sooner, and the sooner we get going on articulating that vision, the better," she added.

Heading into the caucus retreat at this time last year, the party was reckoning with several consecutive months of soaring polling numbers for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, while the Liberals languished. And they have yet to turn the tide and narrow the gap with Poilievre since.

"Public opinion right now remains quite dire for the Liberals on every metric that we measure," said David Coletto, CEO of the Ottawa-based polling and market research firm Abacus Data. "Things are either as bad as they've been or aren't much better, so they're looking at very much the same environment a year later from the last time they went to retreats."

"Yet they've tried a lot to move those numbers, and haven't been successful," he added.

Compounding the Liberals' political challenges was this week's announcement that national campaign director Jeremy Broadhurst is quitting at the end of the month, citing the "physical, mental and emotional effort" of the last two decades in politics.

"I think we're worried, and I don't think that's a secret," Dzerowicz said. "I think anybody looking at the polls should be worried. Our national director has also resigned."

Liberal MP for Davenport Julie Dzerowicz, May 29, 2024, in Ottawa. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

The Liberals also suffered a devastating byelection loss to the Conservatives in Toronto—St. Paul's in June, in what had long been considered a Liberal stronghold.

There are another two upcoming byelections in mid-September, one of which is in a Liberal stronghold, and both of which are sure to be closely watched.

"They have put on a masterclass of whistling past a graveyard," said Scott Reid, a CTV News political analyst and former communications director to former prime minister Paul Martin.

"They simply have not reacted to dramatic political events," Reid added, pointing to the party's status quo, lacklustre polling numbers, which "can't remain an acceptable proposition," and the "almost trauma, from a political standpoint," of the Toronto—St. Paul's byelection loss.

"You've got to feed the change beast," the strategist concluded, saying he'll be watching the retreat for any signs of "a zag," or change in policy or direction from the government.

Reid said he'll also watch for "signs of contention" from caucus — though he doesn't expect to see any — and at "the prime minister's personal demeanour."

"It's been much more sunny ways (this summer) no matter how cloudy the skies have been," Reid said, adding he's looking to see how the prime minister balances his old catchphrase with pointing to "the threat of Pierre Poilievre."

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With the end of the supply-and-confidence agreement, Singh said this week an early election is "more likely," though how the parties grapple with the new dynamic in the House of Commons this fall remains to be seen.

"I've tried to find historical examples of an incumbent government that didn't change its leader and that's been able to come back from such a deficit (in the polls), and I can't find one," Coletto said. "That's because an incumbent government being in this kind of hole is also rare."

Reid said while the end of the supply-and-confidence deal could seem simple, the reality may be far less so.

"Logic dictates that we will now just revert to the rules of a traditional minority parliament, where they'll barter over confidence votes and they'll carefully manage opposition days, and the NDP will hold for ransom the government on critical issues," Reid said.

"But all of that has to be balanced with the recognition that minority governments are unpredictable whirling dervishes," he also said, adding "strange things happen in minority parliaments" and it can't be underestimated that "people make crazy emotional decisions."

Coletto said whether it comes in the form of a cabinet shuffle or policy shift, the Liberals at retreat need to show signs they're willing to make changes. "If the public is in dire need of political change, does the government signal any of that?"

With files from CTV News Supervising Producer Stephanie Ha