'You've got to feed the change beast': Experts look ahead to Liberal caucus retreat
With the federal Liberals set to meet for their annual caucus retreat this week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — and the party — need to be clear about their policy direction and open to change, according to two experts and an MP.
The group's pre-Parliament strategy meeting comes amid fallout from the end of the Liberal-NDP supply-and-confidence agreement, which NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced this week he had "ripped up" after more than two and a half years.
The gathering — set to take place in Nanaimo, B.C., during the first half of this week — is meant to give the governing Liberals the opportunity to map strategy heading into the fall sitting, which starts Sept. 16.
And for the first time in years, the government will no longer be propped up by the NDP.
"What happens in caucus, stays in caucus," Liberal MP Julie Dzerowicz said in an interview with CTV News. "But I will say to you, I don't think I'm the only person that's saying we have to articulate a very clear vision that Canadians need to understand, and know, as we are preparing for the next election."
"I'm hoping that we have a year, but it could be sooner, and the sooner we get going on articulating that vision, the better," she added.
Heading into the caucus retreat at this time last year, the party was reckoning with several consecutive months of soaring polling numbers for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, while the Liberals languished. And they have yet to turn the tide and narrow the gap with Poilievre since.
"Public opinion right now remains quite dire for the Liberals on every metric that we measure," said David Coletto, CEO of the Ottawa-based polling and market research firm Abacus Data. "Things are either as bad as they've been or aren't much better, so they're looking at very much the same environment a year later from the last time they went to retreats."
"Yet they've tried a lot to move those numbers, and haven't been successful," he added.
Compounding the Liberals' political challenges was this week's announcement that national campaign director Jeremy Broadhurst is quitting at the end of the month, citing the "physical, mental and emotional effort" of the last two decades in politics.
"I think we're worried, and I don't think that's a secret," Dzerowicz said. "I think anybody looking at the polls should be worried. Our national director has also resigned."
Liberal MP for Davenport Julie Dzerowicz, May 29, 2024, in Ottawa. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
The Liberals also suffered a devastating byelection loss to the Conservatives in Toronto—St. Paul's in June, in what had long been considered a Liberal stronghold.
There are another two upcoming byelections in mid-September, one of which is in a Liberal stronghold, and both of which are sure to be closely watched.
"They have put on a masterclass of whistling past a graveyard," said Scott Reid, a CTV News political analyst and former communications director to former prime minister Paul Martin.
"They simply have not reacted to dramatic political events," Reid added, pointing to the party's status quo, lacklustre polling numbers, which "can't remain an acceptable proposition," and the "almost trauma, from a political standpoint," of the Toronto—St. Paul's byelection loss.
"You've got to feed the change beast," the strategist concluded, saying he'll be watching the retreat for any signs of "a zag," or change in policy or direction from the government.
Reid said he'll also watch for "signs of contention" from caucus — though he doesn't expect to see any — and at "the prime minister's personal demeanour."
"It's been much more sunny ways (this summer) no matter how cloudy the skies have been," Reid said, adding he's looking to see how the prime minister balances his old catchphrase with pointing to "the threat of Pierre Poilievre."
With the end of the supply-and-confidence agreement, Singh said this week an early election is "more likely," though how the parties grapple with the new dynamic in the House of Commons this fall remains to be seen.
"I've tried to find historical examples of an incumbent government that didn't change its leader and that's been able to come back from such a deficit (in the polls), and I can't find one," Coletto said. "That's because an incumbent government being in this kind of hole is also rare."
Reid said while the end of the supply-and-confidence deal could seem simple, the reality may be far less so.
"Logic dictates that we will now just revert to the rules of a traditional minority parliament, where they'll barter over confidence votes and they'll carefully manage opposition days, and the NDP will hold for ransom the government on critical issues," Reid said.
"But all of that has to be balanced with the recognition that minority governments are unpredictable whirling dervishes," he also said, adding "strange things happen in minority parliaments" and it can't be underestimated that "people make crazy emotional decisions."
Coletto said whether it comes in the form of a cabinet shuffle or policy shift, the Liberals at retreat need to show signs they're willing to make changes. "If the public is in dire need of political change, does the government signal any of that?"
With files from CTV News Supervising Producer Stephanie Ha
IN DEPTH
Jagmeet Singh pulls NDP out of deal with Trudeau Liberals, takes aim at Poilievre Conservatives
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pulled his party out of the supply-and-confidence agreement that had been helping keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberals in power.
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
BREAKING Canadian musician Jacob Hoggard found not guilty of sexual assault
Canadian musician Jacob Hoggard has been found not guilty of sexually assaulting a young woman in northeastern Ontario eight years ago. The former Hedley frontman had pleaded not guilty to sexual assault.
Police arrest Toronto woman in connection with three recent homicides
Police have arrested a Toronto woman in connection with three recent homicides and investigators say that they believe two of the victims may have been 'randomly targeted.'
Following child's death in Ontario, here's what you need to know about rabies and bats
An Ontario child died last month after coming into contact with a rabid bat in their bedroom, which was the first known human rabies case in Canada since 2019.
A French judge in a shocking rape case allows the public to see some of the video evidence
A French judge in the trial of dozens of men accused of raping an unconscious woman whose now former husband had repeatedly drugged her so that he and others could assault her decided on Friday to allow the public to see some of the video recordings of the alleged rapes.
Former Colorado county clerk Tina Peters sentenced to 9 years for voting data scheme
A judge ripped into a Colorado county clerk for her crimes and lies before sentencing her Thursday to nine years behind bars for a data-breach scheme spawned from the rampant false claims about voting machine fraud in the 2020 presidential race.
NDP house leader laments 'agents of chaos' in precarious Parliament
NDP House leader Peter Julian says there's more his party wants to do in Parliament before the next election, but if the current dysfunction continues it will become a factor in how they vote on a confidence measure.
Youth pleads guilty to manslaughter in death of P.E.I. teen Tyson MacDonald
A teen charged with the murder of another teen on Prince Edward Island last year has pleaded guilty to a lesser charge of manslaughter.
Here's what the jury didn't hear in Jacob Hoggard's sexual assault trial
A northeastern Ontario jury has started deliberating in Canadian musician Jacob Hoggard's sexual assault trial, we can now tell you what they weren't allowed to hear.
2 dead after fire rips through historic building in Old Montreal
At least two people are dead and others are injured after a fire ripped through a century-old building in Old Montreal early Friday morning, sources told Noovo Info.
Local Spotlight
'Very special to be home': Chantal Kreviazuk to play anniversary concert in Winnipeg
Chantal Kreviazuk is set to return to Winnipeg to mark a major milestone in her illustrious musical career.
'Too good to be true': Guy Maddin on whirlwind release of apocalyptic comedy starring Cate Blanchett
From the beaches of Cannes to the bustling streets of New York City, a new film by a trio of Manitoba directors has toured the international film festival circuit to much pomp and circumstance.
Husband and wife on road trip of a lifetime stop in Sask. for winter
A husband and wife have been on the road trip of a lifetime and have decided to stop in Saskatchewan for the winter.
Unknown Canadian soldier from First World War identified as Manitoba man
The grave of a previously unknown Canadian soldier has been identified as a man from Hayfield, Man. who fought in the First World War.
N.S. classic cars club donates hundreds of blankets to nursing homes
A group of classic car enthusiasts donated hundreds of blankets to nursing homes in Nova Scotia.
Canada's October temperatures set to teeter-totter due to record-breaking U.S. heat
Moving into the second week of October, the eastern half of Canada can expect some brisker fall air to break down from the north
New Westminster, B.C., aquatic facility named alongside Paris Olympic venue as world's most beautiful
What does New Westminster's təməsew̓txʷ Aquatic and Community Centre have in common with a historic 68,000-seat stadium in Beijing, an NFL stadium and the aquatics venue for the Paris Olympics? They've all been named among the world's most beautiful sports venues for 2024.
'Thank you Kaye San': Last surviving member of Vancouver Asahi baseball team dies at 102
The last living member of the legendary Vancouver Asahi baseball team, Kaye Kaminishi, died on Saturday, Sept. 28, surrounded by family. He was 102 years old.
'Like going to a buffet with no one else in line': Housing sales stall in Metro Vancouver, Fraser Valley
New data from Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley shows a surge in supply and drop in demand in the region's historically hot real estate market.