'You've got to feed the change beast': Experts look ahead to Liberal caucus retreat
With the federal Liberals set to meet for their annual caucus retreat this week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — and the party — need to be clear about their policy direction and open to change, according to two experts and an MP.
The group's pre-Parliament strategy meeting comes amid fallout from the end of the Liberal-NDP supply-and-confidence agreement, which NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced this week he had "ripped up" after more than two and a half years.
The gathering — set to take place in Nanaimo, B.C., during the first half of this week — is meant to give the governing Liberals the opportunity to map strategy heading into the fall sitting, which starts Sept. 16.
And for the first time in years, the government will no longer be propped up by the NDP.
"What happens in caucus, stays in caucus," Liberal MP Julie Dzerowicz said in an interview with CTV News. "But I will say to you, I don't think I'm the only person that's saying we have to articulate a very clear vision that Canadians need to understand, and know, as we are preparing for the next election."
"I'm hoping that we have a year, but it could be sooner, and the sooner we get going on articulating that vision, the better," she added.
Heading into the caucus retreat at this time last year, the party was reckoning with several consecutive months of soaring polling numbers for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, while the Liberals languished. And they have yet to turn the tide and narrow the gap with Poilievre since.
"Public opinion right now remains quite dire for the Liberals on every metric that we measure," said David Coletto, CEO of the Ottawa-based polling and market research firm Abacus Data. "Things are either as bad as they've been or aren't much better, so they're looking at very much the same environment a year later from the last time they went to retreats."
"Yet they've tried a lot to move those numbers, and haven't been successful," he added.
Compounding the Liberals' political challenges was this week's announcement that national campaign director Jeremy Broadhurst is quitting at the end of the month, citing the "physical, mental and emotional effort" of the last two decades in politics.
"I think we're worried, and I don't think that's a secret," Dzerowicz said. "I think anybody looking at the polls should be worried. Our national director has also resigned."
Liberal MP for Davenport Julie Dzerowicz, May 29, 2024, in Ottawa. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
The Liberals also suffered a devastating byelection loss to the Conservatives in Toronto—St. Paul's in June, in what had long been considered a Liberal stronghold.
There are another two upcoming byelections in mid-September, one of which is in a Liberal stronghold, and both of which are sure to be closely watched.
"They have put on a masterclass of whistling past a graveyard," said Scott Reid, a CTV News political analyst and former communications director to former prime minister Paul Martin.
"They simply have not reacted to dramatic political events," Reid added, pointing to the party's status quo, lacklustre polling numbers, which "can't remain an acceptable proposition," and the "almost trauma, from a political standpoint," of the Toronto—St. Paul's byelection loss.
"You've got to feed the change beast," the strategist concluded, saying he'll be watching the retreat for any signs of "a zag," or change in policy or direction from the government.
Reid said he'll also watch for "signs of contention" from caucus — though he doesn't expect to see any — and at "the prime minister's personal demeanour."
"It's been much more sunny ways (this summer) no matter how cloudy the skies have been," Reid said, adding he's looking to see how the prime minister balances his old catchphrase with pointing to "the threat of Pierre Poilievre."
With the end of the supply-and-confidence agreement, Singh said this week an early election is "more likely," though how the parties grapple with the new dynamic in the House of Commons this fall remains to be seen.
"I've tried to find historical examples of an incumbent government that didn't change its leader and that's been able to come back from such a deficit (in the polls), and I can't find one," Coletto said. "That's because an incumbent government being in this kind of hole is also rare."
Reid said while the end of the supply-and-confidence deal could seem simple, the reality may be far less so.
"Logic dictates that we will now just revert to the rules of a traditional minority parliament, where they'll barter over confidence votes and they'll carefully manage opposition days, and the NDP will hold for ransom the government on critical issues," Reid said.
"But all of that has to be balanced with the recognition that minority governments are unpredictable whirling dervishes," he also said, adding "strange things happen in minority parliaments" and it can't be underestimated that "people make crazy emotional decisions."
Coletto said whether it comes in the form of a cabinet shuffle or policy shift, the Liberals at retreat need to show signs they're willing to make changes. "If the public is in dire need of political change, does the government signal any of that?"
With files from CTV News Supervising Producer Stephanie Ha
IN DEPTH
Jagmeet Singh pulls NDP out of deal with Trudeau Liberals, takes aim at Poilievre Conservatives
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pulled his party out of the supply-and-confidence agreement that had been helping keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberals in power.
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
DEVELOPING Live updates: Category 5 Hurricane Milton approaches Florida coast
Hurricane Milton is a Category 5 storm forecast to bring extreme flooding, high winds and heavy rain to the central west coast of Florida.
NEW Freeland announces new actions to encourage building of secondary suites, more homes
The federal government introduced a number of measures related to housing on Tuesday, which include measures for homeowners wanting to add a secondary suite, taxing vacant land and building homes in place of underused federal properties.
'A cause for concern': Canadian universities slip down world ranking list
An organization that ranks the best universities across the globe says its latest report shows a concerning trend that several of Canada’s institutions are slipping down its list.
Andrew Garfield shares the gift he's discovered in grieving his mother
Andrew Garfield’s ability to so lovingly and poetically express his grief for his mother, Linda, who died of pancreatic cancer in 2019, offers a gift of connection, and, perhaps, catharsis, to anyone experiencing loss.
B.C. man convicted of killing neighbour's chihuahua to protect his chickens
A British Columbia provincial court judge says a Boston Bar man who shot a teacup Chihuahua named Bear claiming it was menacing his chickens was not justified in killing the animal.
Liberals considering proroguing Parliament amid document impasse? Freeland says 'no'
The minority Liberal government is not considering proroguing Parliament, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said Tuesday, despite persisting uncertainty over who is willing to keep propping them up and procedural wrangling over a Conservative led-privilege debate.
Hertz tells B.C. tribunal online reservations do not 'guarantee' an available car
A man who showed up at a rental car company only to be told his online reservation would not be honoured is entitled to compensation, B.C.'s small claims tribunal has ruled.
'Extremely disappointed': Family of homicide victim storms out of courtroom as judge reads decision
Emotions boiled over after a judge acquitted two out of three defendants in a manslaughter case, while the third accused has since died.
Hurricane Milton will likely hit Florida cities like Orlando, Tampa and Daytona Beach
Hurricane Milton is expected to leave a path of devastation across central Florida, from Tampa in the west to Daytona Beach in the east.
Local Spotlight
Alberta man's hovercraft creation odyssey 'an incredible experience'
Have you ever seen videos of hovercrafts online or on TV and thought, 'Wow, I wish I could ride one of those.' One Alberta man did, and then built his own.
Saskatchewan's Jessica Campbell becomes first female assistant coach in NHL history
Saskatchewan’s Jessica Campbell has made hockey history, becoming the first ever female assistant coach in the National Hockey League (NHL).
B.C. couple offers Taylor Swift tickets to anyone who can find their missing dog
A B.C. couple is getting desperate – and creative – in their search for their missing dog.
Video shows meteor streaking across Ontario
Videos of a meteor streaking across the skies of southern Ontario have surfaced and small bits of the outer space rock may have made it to land, one astronomy professor says.
Rare cloud formations ripple the sky over Ottawa
A unique form of clouds made an appearance over the skies of Ottawa on Sunday evening.
'It’s unbelievable': N.B. man brings Batmobile to superhero fanatic
Bernie Hicks, known as the ‘Batman of Amherst,’ always wanted to sit in a Batmobile until a kind stranger made it happen.
After four decades of business, Bubi's serves its last meal
Bubi’s Awesome Eats, located on University Ave West took to social media to announce the closure on Friday.
New Far North hospital moves closer to being built after $1.8B design, build contract awarded
Weeneebayko Area Health Authority and the Government of Ontario have awarded a $1.8 billion fixed-price contract to design, build and finance a new Far North hospital.
Severe winds wreak havoc on southern Manitoba
Manitobans are in cleanup mode after intense winds barreled through southern parts of the province this weekend.