Montreal byelection expected to test the Liberal party

MONTREAL -

Byelections rarely draw the kind of attention that has now put a spotlight on a vibrant and densely populated Montreal riding. The Monday vote in Lasalle-Ville Emard-Verdun, in the city’s southwest, is shaping up as a three-way race and a test of the strength of the Liberal party’s base.

Along Wellington Street, a pedestrian road lined with busy restaurants and shops, many voters walk past election posters and chat about the choice they face in an area that has long been a Liberal fortress.

“I don’t know yet, to tell you the truth,” says Philip Sarazan. “I am going to vote for sure, not for Poilievre (the Conservatives). But I am not sure I am going to vote for the Liberals. I did not like the way David was handled, he was tossed aside.”

Former Justice Minister David Lametti was first elected in the riding in 2015 and was dropped from cabinet in July 2023. He resigned earlier this year, triggering the election in Lasalle-Ville Emard-Verdun.

That was only the latest chapter in the storied history of the riding. The neighbourhood, where two-thirds of electors are renters, was represented by former Prime Minister Paul Martin for two decades and was considered a safe Liberal riding for many elections. In 2011, though, it fell to the NDP when the orange wave crashed through Quebec.

For many voters like Mary Folco, voting Liberal has become a habit. “I have always voted Liberal,” she says. “It is just the party I feel comfortable with.”

But this time, if the limited number of polls is to be believed, the byelection is shaping up as a three-way race, with the Liberals, NDP and the Bloc Quebecois in contention. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in the Montreal area today and spoke of what he says is at stake.

“This election is going to be an important moment of choice for Canadians, and indeed, Montrealers,” he said.

Trudeau mainly focused his attacks on the NDP, which is fielding a high-profile candidate in the riding, Craig Sauve, a longtime city councillor.

“I know there are a lot of people disappointed with the NDP playing simple politics, walking away from progressive values and from the fight against climate change,” said Trudeau.

Electors say the cost of living, housing and health care are key issues.

Analysts say this could be a crucial moment for Liberals, as a loss could signal they are losing even their core base, especially in the wake of the party’s byelection loss to the Conservatives in the stronghold of Toronto-St-Paul’s in June.

“It is really the Liberals’ rising to lose,” says Daniel Beland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada. “The NDP candidate, Craig Sauve is well known, but the Bloc Quebecois is also campaigning aggressively. It is an exciting race which it normally should not be from a Liberal standpoint.”

Still, Beland says he is not convinced a loss would push Prime Minister Justin Trudeau out of the top job. “It would complicate things for sure, but there are a lot of factors at play.”

Analysts are looking to the byelection in Manitoba that will also be held Monday as an indication of the strength of the NDP and its leader Jagmeet Singh. The NDP has won ten of the last 11 elections in Winnipeg’s Elmwood-Transcona riding with the Conservatives taking the other.

In the Montreal area, those wanting to try to read into the outcome of the byelection may have to pull an all-nighter, as a close race could mean late results.