Predictions for Trudeau, Poilievre and the other federal leaders in the New Year: Nanos
In CTV News Trend Line's last episode of 2022, pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle discuss Canada's major federal parties – what moved the needle for them this year, and what do they have to look forward to in 2023?
LIBERALS
With another pandemic-laden year that began with the convoy protests, the Liberals faced significant challenges in their efforts to advance their agenda in 2022. "I don't want to use the word excuse, but there is a reason why the Liberals have not been able to deliver and focus on their agenda," said Nanos, "because there (were) other events, massive events that have overtaken that."
But with the next federal election coming in 2025 (or sooner), the clock is ticking, and Nanos said they're going to want to try to deliver on some of the items on their agenda.
"Two words in terms of the prediction for 2023 for the Liberals: Hunger Games," said Nanos, referring to speculation on whether Justin Trudeau will stay on as Liberal Party leader, and the jockeying within cabinet and caucus amongst possible contenders for the job. "Does Justin Trudeau still have the fire in his belly to continue and fight another election?" asked Nanos.
While Trudeau has told his cabinet he intends to run, "he has to say that, because he can't be a lame duck leader and a lame duck prime minister," said Nanos. "But people, I think, will be putting him under the microscope, watching and listening to everything that he says and does to see if there are any signals as to his future staying on as the leader of the Liberal Party, or perhaps not staying on."
This could result in a year of some prominent Liberals "awkwardly" positioning themselves for a leadership bid, while still being loyal to Trudeau, according to Nanos.
CONSERVATIVES
The Conservatives were competitive throughout the year with the Liberals in Nanos' weekly national ballot tracking. Since January, the parties were either trading leads or were neck and neck for extended periods, with the Conservatives opening up a small but sustained lead that lasted over a month after Pierre Poilievre was crowned leader in September.
The parties were statistically tied a few weeks ago, but the Conservatives have opened up a four-point lead in latest tracking on Dec. 9.
Nanos' prediction for the Conservatives in 2023 is a "big focus" on fundraising, on efforts to build up their organization and a "new machinery for the election."
"Don't underestimate Pierre Poilievre. He's excellent at communicating, but he also knows what needs to be done to win elections," said Nanos, who added that the Conservative leader will continue to attack the Liberals and institutions such as the Bank of Canada, as well as the media.
"And he will use those attacks to be red meat to core Conservatives to open up their wallets, to build the war chest so that Pierre Poilievre can have all the resources at his disposal to challenge the federal Liberals."
NDP
Nanos said the fact the NDP was able to maintain ballot support hovering in the 20s throughout the year is "usually good news for the New Democrats and bad news for the Liberals" because of vote splits. But the existential question for the party remains whether they can keep supporting and propping up the Liberals with their confidence-and-supply agreement.
Just this week, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he's ready to withdraw from the deal reached in March -- a deal in which his party agreed to support the Liberals on key House of Commons votes to avoid triggering an election before 2025 -- if the Liberals fail to address the crisis in our health-care system.
This kind of jockeying will continue in 2023, said Nanos, when the NDP are going to have to decide what they're ready to push the Liberals on. "They've got their dental plan. What else are they going to ask as part of the agreement with the Liberals? How are they going to weather the storm that will happen at some point," said Nanos.
"How are they going to weather the next crisis that might not look well on the Liberals, with the New Democrats looking like the party that is propping up a government that is going through turbulence in 2023?"
For the rest of Nanos' analysis on the Green Party and Bloc Quebecois, and for the full Trend Line episode, hit play in our video player above or listen to it below in our podcast player.
CTV News Trend Line will return after the holidays on Jan. 18, 2023.
IN DEPTH

Billions for home building back-loaded, deficit projected at $40B in 2023-24: fall economic statement
The federal government's fiscal update presented by Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Tuesday includes billions of dollars in new spending and targeted policy measures aimed at increasing Canada's housing supply in the years ahead.
Canada doubling carbon price rebate rural top-up, pausing charge on heating oil: Trudeau
The Canadian government is doubling the pollution price rebate rural top-up rate, and implementing a three-year pause to the federal carbon price on deliveries of heating oil in all jurisdictions where the federal fuel charge is in effect, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Thursday.
As it happened: Zelenskyy visits Canada, addresses Parliament as PM pledges $650M in Ukraine aid
During his historic visit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered repeated thanks to Canada for its continued support for his country as it continues to defend itself from Russia's invasion. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Canada will be making a $650 million 'multi-year commitment' for further Ukraine aid. Recap CTVNews.ca's minute-by-minute updates.
ANALYSIS What do the policies Poilievre's party passed say about the Conservatives' future?
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre spent the summer speaking about housing affordability, a core focus that attendees at the party's Quebec City convention were quick to praise him for. But by the end of the weekend, delegates opted to instead pass policies on contentious social issues. What does that say about the Conservatives' future?
Justin Trudeau and wife Sophie Gregoire Trudeau separating, after 18 years of marriage
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his wife are separating after 18 years of marriage, and while they plan to co-parent their children, Sophie Gregoire Trudeau will no longer be considered the prime minister's spouse in any official capacity.
Opinion

opinion Don Martin: Greg Fergus risks becoming the shortest serving Speaker in our history
House Speaker Greg Fergus could face a parliamentary committee inquisition where his fate might hang on a few supportive NDP votes. But political columnist Don Martin says this NDP support might be shaky, given how one possible replacement is herself a New Democrat.
opinion Don Martin: With Trudeau resignation fever rising, a Conservative nightmare appears
With speculation rising that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will follow his father's footsteps in the snow to a pre-election resignation, political columnist Don Martin focuses on one Liberal cabinet minister who's emerging as leadership material -- and who stands out as a fresh-faced contrast to the often 'angry and abrasive' leader of the Conservatives.
OPINION Don Martin: For squandering their hard-earned income tax, we owe our kids an apology
'Its bi-annual work of fiscal fiction rolled out Tuesday as the fall update staged a desperate bid to reverse the Liberals' downward spiral in the polls while trying to soften its drunken-sailor-spending image.'
OPINION Don Martin: Life in Trudeau's brain defies imagination
Getting inside Justin Trudeau's head these days requires a vivid imagination. The prime minister's bizarre statement on the Middle East war this week reflects a distorted view that human-shielded resistance by Hamas terrorists can be overcome with "maximum restraint" by Israel's military.
OPINION Don Martin: As much as Poilievre wants it, he will not get his election wish for 2023
It’s been 100+ hours of brutal aftermath since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau turned carbon pricing from a national principle into regional graft by lifting the tax on home heating oil and using free heat pumps to buy back the Liberal loyalty of Atlantic Canada voters.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories

Six ballots, no winner: Assembly of First Nations election spills over to Thursday
Assembly of First Nations organizers sent delegates home without a new national chief late Wednesday after six rounds of balloting failed to produce a winner with enough votes to clear the 60 per cent threshold necessary for victory.
Sask. Second World War veteran honoured with France's highest order of distinction
Jim Spenst, 97, is the most recent Canadian to officially receive France's highest order of distinction: the insignia of Knight of the French National Order of the Legion of Honour.
Las Vegas shooting suspect was a professor who recently applied for a job at UNLV, AP source says
The man suspected of fatally shooting three people and wounding another at a Las Vegas university Wednesday was a professor who unsuccessfully sought a job at the school, a law enforcement official with direct knowledge of the investigation told The Associated Press.
PM pans Poilievre for 'pulling stunts' by threatening to delay MPs' holidays with House tactics
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is threatening to delay MPs' holidays by throwing up thousands of procedural motions seeking to block Liberal legislation until Prime Minister Justin Trudeau backs off his carbon tax. It's a move Government House Leader Karina Gould was quick to condemn, warning the Official Opposition leader's 'temper tantrum' tactics will impact Canadians.
'I'm so broken': Grieving family speaks out after B.C. cancer patient awaiting treatment chooses MAID
A devastated family says long waits for cancer treatment led a beloved father and grandfather to choose medically assisted death 13 days ago.
'I'm never going to be satisfied': Ontario 'crypto king' lands in Australia as associate flees to Dubai
Ontario’s self-described ‘crypto king’ just landed in Australia, the latest destination in a months-long travel spree he’s prolifically posted about on social media, despite ongoing bankruptcy proceedings tied to the more than $40 million scheme he allegedly operated.
Renowned scholar, with ties to Waterloo, Ont. university, reportedly killed with his family in Gaza
Sofyan Taya, a former guest scholar at the University of Waterloo in Ontario, was reportedly killed in an Israeli airstrike near Gaza City. His friend and former colleague called him a brilliant and gentle soul.
One of the dwarf planets in our solar system is 'squishy' like 'soft cheese,' researchers say
A new study investigating the properties of one of the dwarf planets in our solar system has found that it might have a 'squishy' composition, closer to a 'soft cheese' than a hard ball of rock.
opinion Don Martin: Greg Fergus risks becoming the shortest serving Speaker in our history
House Speaker Greg Fergus could face a parliamentary committee inquisition where his fate might hang on a few supportive NDP votes. But political columnist Don Martin says this NDP support might be shaky, given how one possible replacement is herself a New Democrat.