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Poilievre's Conservatives in lead while Liberals being 'squeezed' by NDP: Nanos ballot tracking

The Conservative Party of Canada is in the lead in the latest Nanos ballot tracking, with the Liberals in second place after a 5 per cent drop over the past four weeks.

The Conservatives are three points above the governing Liberals, with the third place NDP gaining with a six-point rise over the same time period.

Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of Nanos Research, said Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is getting “squeezed” by what looks like “disaffected, disappointed, disgruntled” Liberals who are parking their support right now with the New Democrats.

  • For more analysis from Nik and host Michael Stittle, listen to the Trend Line podcast in our player above or on YouTube

“That's very bad news for the Liberals right now,” said Nanos on the latest CTV News Trend Line podcast, released Wednesday. Nanos invoked the vote splitting enjoyed by Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, which won a majority in 2011 after an ascendant NDP led by Jack Layton helped to split the vote on the left.

“It's like ‘Back to the Future,’” said Nanos. “If this holds up, it's going to be very good news for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, if the NDP do this well.”

It’s a “perfect storm” for both the Conservatives and NDP, said Nanos, who are both eating into Liberal support.

“The Liberals have to do something to shake some of those progressive voters that are drifting to the New Democrats, to come back to the Liberals,” he said. “But you know what? Right now, Jagmeet Singh should be Pierre Poilievere’s best friend. You're never going to see Pierre Poilievre attack Jagmeet Singh. He's going to want him to perform well in order to have those votes splits for the Conservatives to pop up the middle, and capture more seats in the House of Commons.”

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