Parliament on the road to an unprecedented confidence crisis, but there are off-ramps

A statue of former prime minister Sir Robert Borden is backed by the Confederation Building on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

If no political party is willing to say uncle, the drawn-out stalemate in the House of Commons is heading for an unprecedented situation that could amount to a tacit lack of confidence in the government, without anyone in Parliament casting a vote.

The Conservatives and Bloc Québécois have already announced plans to try to bring down the government and trigger an election with a non-confidence motion at the next opportunity. But there's no telling when that opportunity will come, because the House has been gridlocked in a filibuster for more than a month

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That may seem like good news for the embattled Liberal minority government, despite the total lack of progress on legislation, but the standoff is inching Parliament ever closer to a procedural cliff that would prevent the Liberals from raising the funds they need to run the government.

"That would be unprecedented. I don't know what exactly would happen," said constitutional lawyer Lyle Skinner, who works as director of parliamentary affairs for Sen. Jim Quinn..

"That's a clear sign that something unusual is occurring, and at a certain point in time it's going to be seen as a loss of confidence without a confidence vote ever occurring."

Parliament is set to resume Monday after being off for a week for Remembrance Day, where it is expected a weeks-long filibuster will pick up where it left off before the break.

The Liberals and Conservatives are each blaming the other for the state of the House.

The Conservatives have promised that House business will remain at a standstill until the government hands over unredacted documents to Parliament and the RCMP related to a green tech fund that misspent government money.

The Liberals say the Conservatives are filibustering their own motion and should instead move the talks to a committee, as the Speaker ordered.

"We are committed to getting things done for Canadians in Parliament. Important legislation is before the House, and we believe the Conservatives should stop playing obstructionist partisan games so that MPs can debate those bills," Liberal House leader Karina Gould said in a statement.

Gould called the filibuster "reckless and irresponsible" and said the Conservatives are "putting their own partisan self-interest ahead of Parliament's responsibilities."

The government insists that it is out of order for parliament to be ordered to hand over documents for use not by the House of Commons or its members but by a third party, in this case the RCMP.

Opposition House leader Andrew Scheer shot back to say that if Gould really cared, she could get the House back to work immediately "by stopping the Liberal coverup and releasing all of the documents, as ordered by Parliament."

The ongoing debate, which supersedes all other business, doesn't allow the government to raise any money, which is one of the central reasons Parliament exists.

Legislation to raise funds — called supply bills — are special, said Skinner, because if the government can't convince Parliament to pass them it shows the House has lost confidence in the government. Loss of confidence can trigger an election.

If the government can't even bring its supply bills to a vote, it raises all kinds of questions.

"It's almost like entering into a U.S.-style shutdown because nobody wants an election. And there is no playbook for that," Skinner said.

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Nothing so dire is expected in the near term.

The government will ask for money to cover unexpected expenses in December. If it never comes to a vote because of the filibuster, that could create a short-term budget crunch.

But if the situation persists into March, there will be far greater consequences that could indeed mimic a U.S.-style shutdown. The government wouldn't be able to spend any money in the new fiscal year, and the Governor General would have to take notice.

There are still political off-ramps to avoid the situation, but so far no party seems prepared to take them.

Another opposition party like the New Democrats could work with the Liberals to put forward a motion to shut down the debate. But so far the NDP appear content to watch the Liberals and Conservatives hoist themselves by their own procedural petard for now and have not signalled any intention to put an end to the filibuster.

The Bloc have offered to do exactly that, but only if the Liberals agree to their demands, including putting up $16 billion over five years to increase old age security payments for seniors under the age of 75.

The Conservatives say they'll only stop the filibuster if the Liberals hand over the documents, or the NDP agree to help bring down the government.

The Liberals can't do much on their own except call an election, which will allow funds to flow while the government is in caretaker mode, or prorogue Parliament and put a hard reset on the proceedings.

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Green Party Leader Elizabeth May says she doesn't think it'll come to that.

"I think that there's a very strong likelihood that the majority of individual members of Parliament and the larger parties will see a benefit in making sure we don't have a crisis on continuity of supply for government business," May said at a press conference this month.

All that requires is for the parties to co-operate in a way they haven't for weeks.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 17, 2024.