The gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives has narrowed significantly when it comes to voter support, according to the latest Nanos federal ballot tracking numbers.

The Nanos tracking for the four-week period ending March 16 has the Liberals at 35.9 per cent ballot support, closely followed by the Conservatives at 34.8 per cent.

The New Democrats have 18.5 per cent support, while the Greens are at 6.2 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois are at 3.5 per cent.

Nearly half of Canadians surveyed (49.3 per cent) said they would consider voting Liberal, while 48.4 per cent said they would consider voting Conservative. A similar percentage (48.9) said they would consider voting NDP.

Nanos tracking also has Justin Trudeau as Canadians’ preferred choice for prime minister, at 49.3 per cent, with Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer trailing behind at 25.9 per cent and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh at just nine per cent.

Nearly 55 per cent of those surveyed said they believe Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader, while nearly 40 per cent said the same about Scheer. Just over 38 per centsaid Singh has the qualities of a good political leader, while 33.8 per cent said the same about Green Party Leader Elizabeth May. 

Pollster Nik Nanos said the most significant change in perceptions of the Liberal and Conservative parties is seen among men. Men appear to be drifting away from the Liberals and becoming more drawn to the Conservatives, he told CTVNews.ca on Tuesday.

Nanos said that could be due to an“accumulation effect” of various controversies that have plagued the Liberals, including backlash in response to small business tax changes, Trudeau’s controversial vacation on Aga Khan’s private island and the prime minister’s widely-panned trip to India.

Women’s continued support for the Liberals, meanwhile, appears to be rooted in the party’s commitment to gender equality, Nanos said.

Overall, the Nanos Party Power Index, which is a composite of a series of measures including ballot and leadership impressions, has the Liberals at 54.6 points, the Conservatives at 52.7 points, and the NDP at 44.5 points. The Greens have 33.7 points and the Bloc Quebecois 28.9 points (in Quebec only).

Nanos said this level of support for the federal Conservatives hasn’t been seen in about two years, and the trend favouring the Tories is mostly due to Liberals’ “self-inflicted” problems, “not a result of the buoyance of the Conservative Party.”

Trudeau's trip to India

In a separate survey, Nanos Research also asked Canadians whether they thought Trudeau’s recent trip to India was a success. The trip was marred by controversy, including the revelation that Jaspal Atwal, a man convicted of attempted murder, was invited to two events attended by Trudeau in India.

The majority of those surveyed (59 per cent) said that Trudeau’s India trip was not a success and 18 per cent said it was “somewhat” unsuccessful.

Only two per cent called it a success, while 10 per cent said it was somewhat a success. Eleven per cent said they were unsure.

Methodology

The Weekly Nanos Tracking is based on random telephone interviews (land lines and cellphones) with 1,000 Canadians using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The interviews are compiled into a four-week rolling average of 1,000 interviews, where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. Current data is for the four-week period ending March 16, 2018.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate ±3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.