Nanos projections show Poilievre's Conservatives winning more seats than Trudeau's Liberals
If an election were to be held today, the Conservative Party would win more seats than the Liberals, the latest seat projections from Nanos Research show.
In the last two federal elections, the Conservatives edged out the Liberals on the popular vote but failed to win the most seats, allowing Justin Trudeau to form consecutive minority governments.
"You know, in the past, the Conservatives have led but haven't been efficient at converting into seats. But now in the latest Nanos seat projections that we have, we actually have the Conservatives winning more seats than the Liberals, which means there would be a chance of not just a Liberal defeat, but of the Conservatives having a chance to form a government," said Nanos Research's Nik Nanos on the latest episode of Trend Line.
While a federal election is unlikely anytime soon, given that the Liberals and the NDP have a governing deal until 2025, the seat projections show the Conservatives winning 108 seats if an election was held today, compared to 106 seats for the Liberals. Much of this has to do with the Conservative Party's projected performance around the Greater Toronto Area, where the Liberals have previously dominated.
The projections also show the NDP winning 41 seats, the Bloc Quebecois winning 24 and the Greens winning 2.
Nanos added that there are 57 ridings that are too close to call.
Some of these suburban ridings around Toronto, such as those in Oakville and Burlington, had been considered "traditionally very strong" ridings for the Liberals in the last two elections, Nanos said. But the projections now suggest these ridings are leaning Conservative or too close to call.
Results of 2021 federal election in Ontario (GTA) (Nanos Research)
Current Nanos modelling shows seat projections in GTA, with grey ridings too close to call within 7%; black too close to call within 2% (Nanos Research)
"The big game changer here is that the Conservatives are doing better in Ontario than they have in the past, and as a result, it's yielding more seats," Nanos said.
"If you are Justin Trudeau or an adviser to Justin Trudeau, you've got to be thinking, 'Oh boy.' There are some ridings at risk that are traditionally Liberal ridings. You have to be very careful on what happens in the next couple of years."
The projections also show the NDP picking up more seats. In the last three elections, the NDP has been shut out of Toronto, but now, some of the downtown ridings are projected to go orange.
Nanos believes the Liberals are in dire need of renewal if they want to win the next election amid growing concerns over the impact of inflation and the potential for a recession.
"I think they have to kind of renew their mission and vision for that for the country, and basically explain why they deserve another mandate. So expect them to do some renewal," he said. "If they don't do renewal and just think that they can do what they've done in the last few years, I'm not sure that's going to work."
You can find a new episode of Trend Line every second Wednesday on CTVNews.ca, YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts
Correction
This article previously stated there were 67 ridings that were too close to call. It has been corrected to state 57 ridings are too close to call, according to Nanos Research.
IN DEPTH
Trudeau, key election players to testify at foreign interference hearings. What you need to know
The public hearings portion of the federal inquiry into foreign interference in Canadian elections and democratic institutions are picking back up this week. Here's what you need to know.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Who is supporting, opposing new online harms bill?
Now that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's sweeping online harms legislation is before Parliament, allowing key stakeholders, major platforms, and Canadians with direct personal experience with abuse to dig in and see what's being proposed, reaction is streaming in. CTVNews.ca has rounded up reaction, and here's how Bill C-63 is going over.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
TREND LINE What Nanos' tracking tells us about Canadians' mood, party preference heading into 2024
Heading into a new year, Canadians aren't feeling overly optimistic about the direction the country is heading, with the number of voters indicating negative views about the federal government's performance at the highest in a decade, national tracking from Nanos Research shows.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
opinion Don Martin: Pierre Poilievre's road to apparent victory will soon start to get rougher
Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives appear to be on cruise control to a rendezvous with the leader's prime ministerial ambition, but in his latest column for CTVNews.ca, Don Martin questions whether the Conservative leader may be peaking too soon.
opinion Don Martin: The Trudeau lessons from Brian Mulroney's legacy start with walking away
Justin Trudeau should pay very close attention to the legacy treatment afforded former prime minister Brian Mulroney, who died on Thursday at age 84, writes columnist Don Martin.
opinion Don Martin: ArriveCan debacle may be even worse than we know from auditor's report
It's been 22 years since a former auditor general blasted the Chretien government after it 'broke just about every rule in the book' in handing out private sector contracts in the sponsorship scandal. In his column for CTVNews.ca, Don Martin says the book has been broken anew with everything that went on behind the scenes of the 'dreaded' ArriveCan app.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Snow-covered bodies of 2 men from Senegal found in New York woods near Canadian border
Two men from Senegal froze to death were found in the snow of a wooded area close to the Canadian border, New York state police said.
For years she thought her son had died of an overdose. The police video changed all that
Austin Hunter Turner died in 2017, on a night that his mother has rewound and replayed again and again, trying to make sense of what happened.
This historical tavern in Toronto is closing after nearly 200 years
An historic downtown Toronto bar is closing its doors next week after nearly 200 years in business.
Vancouver rapper falls on ice during Canucks game performance
The Vancouver Canucks weren’t the only ones who stumbled during Thursday night’s game against the Dallas Stars.
Niagara Region 'proactively' declares state of emergency ahead of total solar eclipse
Niagara Region says it has declared a state of emergency 'out of an abundance of caution' as it prepares for an influx of visitors for next month’s total solar eclipse.
Ontario homeowner on the hook for $27,000 when contractor severed power line
An Ontario man who built a garage on his property has been locked in a battle with his electricity provider for a year and half over a severed power line.
Montreal doctors' breakthrough discovery about causes of cerebral palsy giving hope
A breakthrough discovery made by doctors at the Montreal Children's Hospital about the causes of cerebral palsy is giving new hope to one West Island family.
Feeling older than you are? It could be how you sleep
Not getting enough sleep may cause you to feel five to 10 years older than you really are, according to two new studies.
Social media can alter children's brains and impact mental health: neuroscientist
Neuroscientist Emma Duerden says social media can alter children's brains and have negative impacts on their mental health.
Local Spotlight
Tipping is off the table at this Toronto restaurant
A Toronto restaurant introduced a surprising new rule that reduced the cost of a meal and raised the salaries of staff.
Where is the worst place for allergy sufferers in Canada?
The spring allergy season has started early in many parts of Canada, with high levels of pollen in some cities already. Experts weigh in on which areas have it worse so far this season.
Grandparent scam: London, Ont., senior beats fraudsters not once, but twice
It was a typical Tuesday for Mabel Beharrell, 84, until she got the call that would turn her world upside down. Her teenaged grandson was in trouble and needed her help.
Conservation officers seize 9-foot python from Chilliwack home
B.C. conservation officers recently seized a nine-foot-long Burmese python from a home in Chilliwack.
N.B. man wins $64 million from Lotto 6/49
A New Brunswicker will go to bed Thursday night much richer than he was Wednesday after collecting on a winning lottery ticket he let sit on his bedroom dresser for nearly a year.
Ontario auto-insurance changes could leave some vulnerable, says expert
The Ontario government is introducing changes to auto-insurance, but some experts say the move is ill-advised.
A tiny critter who could: Elusive Newfoundland Marten makes improbable comeback
Newfoundland’s unique version of the Pine Marten has grown out of its threatened designation.
Ontario man loses $12K to deepfake scam involving Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
A Toronto man is out $12,000 after falling victim to a deepfake cryptocurrency scam that appeared to involve Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Record-setting pop tab collection for Ontario boy
It started small with a little pop tab collection to simply raise some money for charity and help someone — but it didn’t take long for word to get out that 10-year-old Jace Weber from Mildmay, Ont. was quickly building up a large supply of aluminum pop tabs.