The New Democrats continue to rise higher up the Nanos Party Power Index, and are sitting at a 12-month high in virtually every category.

The NDP have jumped at least a point for the past three weeks in a row, and now sit at 56 points out of a possible 100:

  • NDP: 56 (up one point)
  • Liberals: 53 (down one point)
  • Conservatives: 52 (no change)
  • Green: 31 (no change)
  • Bloc: 27 (up one point)

Red turning orange

As Tom Mulcair’s NDP continue to trend higher, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have been steadily dipping. Four months ago, the Liberals were at 57 points on the index, a solid nine points above the New Democrats.


Numbers Hit with Nik

The New Democrats are at a 12-month high, but the question is whether the party can maintain the momentum. Pollster Nik Nanos explains in his weekly update.

Posted by CTV News on Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Mulcair has also gained steady ground when it comes to the question of preferred prime minister. Just under 28 per cent of respondents chose Mulcair, which puts him ahead of Trudeau’s 26 per cent, but behind Harper’s 29 per cent.

Things are still very competitive between the three parties, but those who have decided against backing Harper now seem to be shopping around their support and looking at opposition options. It’s still too early to tell how this will translate at the polls, but it does speak to a high level of volatility among voters.

The Nanos Party Power Index comprises a basket of political goods that includes ballot preferences, accessible voters, preferred PM views and evaluations of the leaders. It is modeled similar to a standard confidence index. The results are based on a four week rolling average of opinion solicited through a random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians in the period ending June 12th, 2015. It is considered accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.