Nearly 70 per cent of Canadians want a change in federal government, according to a new CTV/Ipsos Reid poll, but are evenly split on the question of who they think will win the next election.
The poll found that 68 per cent of Canadians say “it is time for another federal party to take over and run the country,” down two points from October, while 32 per cent say the Harper government deserves to be re-elected.
Here’s the regional breakdown of those who want a change in government:
- Quebec (82 per cent)
- Atlantic Canada (72 per cent)
- Ontario (65 per cent)
- British Columbia (63 per cent)
- Saskatchewan and Manitoba (63 per cent)
- Alberta (60 per cent)
Of those who think the government deserves re-election, the most were found in:
- Alberta (40 per cent)
- British Columbia (37 per cent)
- Saskatchewan and Manitoba (37 per cent)
- Ontario (35 per cent)
Meanwhile, half of Canadians believe the Liberals are ready to take over in government, up seven points in two months. According to the poll, 51 per cent of Canadians “agree” with the statement that “the Liberal Party is ready to be Canada’s next government,” while 49 per cent “disagree.”
The biggest gains among those who say the Liberals are ready to form government were seen in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (up 21 per cent), Alberta (up 13 per cent), British Columbia (up six per cent) and Ontario (up six per cent).
But in the end, Canadians are divided on who they think will actually win the next election, with 45 per cent saying it will be the Liberals and 43 per cent saying it will be the Conservatives.
Only 13 per cent think the NDP under leader Tom Mulcair will win the next federal election, which is scheduled for the fall of 2015. In Quebec, where the NDP surged to Official Opposition status in 2011, 50 per cent believe the Liberals will win in 2015, while 28 per cent said the Conservatives and 22 per cent said the NDP.
Also found in the polling data released Friday is the latest approval ratings for Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Forty-four per cent of Canadians “approve” (8 per cent “strongly,” 36 per cent “somewhat”) of the government’s performance under Harper’s leadership, up three points from the half-way mark of its mandate. Fifty-six per cent “disapprove” (27 per cent “strongly,” 29 per cent “somewhat”) of its performance, down three points.
Government approval is highest in Alberta at 57 per cent, British Columbia at 48 per cent, Ontario at 47 per cent and Saskatchewan and Manitoba at 43 per cent. It is lowest in Atlantic Canada (34 per cent) and Quebec (32 per cent).
The poll was conducted between Feb. 14 and 19, and included responses from a sample of 1,036 Canadians from Ipsos’s online panel. The results are considered accurate to within +/- 3.5 percentage points.
In data released Wednesday from the same poll, the Liberals now have an eight-point lead over the Conservatives. If an election were held tomorrow, 37 per cent said they would vote Liberal (up four points from early February); 29 per cent would vote Conservative (unchanged); 24 per cent would vote NDP (down three per cent); while 18 per cent were undecided.
And according to data released Thursday, the number of Canadians who said they share Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s values has gone up in the past two months. The poll found that 54 per cent of Canadians say they “agree” (16 per cent “strongly,” 38 per cent “somewhat”) that they “share Justin Trudeau and the Liberal’s values when it comes to where Canada should be headed.”
That figure is up six points since early December. The 46 per cent of respondents who said they “disagree” (20 per cent “strongly,” 26 per cent “somewhat”) is down by six points over the same period.
Also in data released Thursday, sixty per cent of respondents said they “agree” (17 per cent “strongly,” 43 per cent “somewhat”) with that statement that Trudeau’s “policies and ideas are innovative and forward thinking,” up eight points from two months ago. Meanwhile, 40 per cent said they “disagree” (17 per cent “strongly,” 23 per cent “somewhat”), down eight points.
