Liberals to face pressure to move quickly on fiscal plan as fourth wave hits economy
The Trudeau Liberals may soon start feeling the pressure to move quickly on spending and tax plans, buoyed by a more optimistic outlook for federal finances and an electorate the parties have said is eager to see more policy-making than politicking.
The Liberals are expected to release an update on the government's finances this fall that would give a renewed outlook for the deficit and an economy still affected by COVID-19.
The government may want to release the outlook in November and use it to introduce some spending and tax measures, said former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page, who now heads the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa.
He said the need to move quickly may be a message from an electorate that returned the parties to almost their exact same standings prior to a campaign that ground policy-making to a halt.
The Liberals are unlikely to start reining in spending with the pandemic ongoing, he said, but should quickly outline the financial rules to be used to keep federal finances sustainable.
"There are some big issues out there -- could be First Nations, could be housing, or could be dealing with health issues post-pandemic -- where the bills are just enormous," Page said. "You can't do everything, so you would force decisions on certain things."
The current parliamentary budget officer in mid-August projected the deficit this fiscal year to be $138.2 billion, down from the $154.7 billion the government unveiled in the spring budget.
Deficits are expected to fall thereafter as pandemic spending winds down and tax revenues grow as the economy recovers, with the caveat that projections were subject to the whims of COVID-19.
"Layering on Liberal platform commitments would not substantially change this picture, but spending pressures in a coalition-context and structural pressures over the medium term warrant monitoring," Rebekah Young, Scotiabank director of fiscal and provincial economics, wrote in a postelection analysis.
The Liberals will have to gain enough opposition support to get their agenda through Parliament.
The party's platform outlined about $78 billion in new spending over five years, and hoped to ease the burden on the federal treasury by raking in $25 billion in new tax measures.
The Liberals are likely to move quickly on some of those tax measures similar to 2015 when the newly elected raised taxes on top income earners, said Elliot Hughes of Summa Strategies.
He said details of big spending priorities, such as housing and climate change, may wait until a budget given the short lead-time to pull together an economic update that governments sometimes use as mini-budgets.
"The sequencing of each of those very, very large spends will be interesting," said Hughes, a one-time adviser to former finance minister Bill Morneau. "And matching that on the other side of the ledger is how do they, and when do they, begin trying to raise some revenues as well?"
Toby Sanger, executive director of Canadians for Tax Fairness, said the Liberals should find willing political partners for some new tax measures because of overlapping promises made across all party platforms.
He cited overlapping promises to tax multinational e-commerce companies, reel in revenue from excess profits from large corporations and banks, extreme wealth taxes, as well as tax measures to reduce real estate speculation.
"They may not be exactly the same proposals, and some may be stronger than others, but they really do point to some common interest in these areas," Sanger said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 22, 2021.
IN DEPTH
Trudeau, key election players to testify at foreign interference hearings. What you need to know
The public hearings portion of the federal inquiry into foreign interference in Canadian elections and democratic institutions are picking back up this week. Here's what you need to know.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Who is supporting, opposing new online harms bill?
Now that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's sweeping online harms legislation is before Parliament, allowing key stakeholders, major platforms, and Canadians with direct personal experience with abuse to dig in and see what's being proposed, reaction is streaming in. CTVNews.ca has rounded up reaction, and here's how Bill C-63 is going over.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
TREND LINE What Nanos' tracking tells us about Canadians' mood, party preference heading into 2024
Heading into a new year, Canadians aren't feeling overly optimistic about the direction the country is heading, with the number of voters indicating negative views about the federal government's performance at the highest in a decade, national tracking from Nanos Research shows.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
opinion Don Martin: Pierre Poilievre's road to apparent victory will soon start to get rougher
Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives appear to be on cruise control to a rendezvous with the leader's prime ministerial ambition, but in his latest column for CTVNews.ca, Don Martin questions whether the Conservative leader may be peaking too soon.
opinion Don Martin: The Trudeau lessons from Brian Mulroney's legacy start with walking away
Justin Trudeau should pay very close attention to the legacy treatment afforded former prime minister Brian Mulroney, who died on Thursday at age 84, writes columnist Don Martin.
opinion Don Martin: ArriveCan debacle may be even worse than we know from auditor's report
It's been 22 years since a former auditor general blasted the Chretien government after it 'broke just about every rule in the book' in handing out private sector contracts in the sponsorship scandal. In his column for CTVNews.ca, Don Martin says the book has been broken anew with everything that went on behind the scenes of the 'dreaded' ArriveCan app.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Grandparent scam: London, Ont., senior beats fraudsters not once, but twice
It was a typical Tuesday for Mabel Beharrell, 84, until she got the call that would turn her world upside down. Her teenaged grandson was in trouble and needed her help.
Deaths of 4 people on Sask. farm confirmed as murder-suicide
The deaths of four people on a farm near the Saskatchewan village of Neudorf have been confirmed a murder-suicide.
CRA no longer requiring 'bare trust' reporting in 2023 tax return
The Canada Revenue Agency announced Thursday it will not require 'bare trust' reporting from Canadians that it introduced for the 2024 tax season, just four days before the April 2 deadline.
Full parole granted to man convicted in notorious 'McDonald's murders' in Cape Breton
The Parole Board of Canada has granted full parole to one of three men convicted in the brutal murders of three McDonald's restaurant workers in Cape Breton more than 30 years ago.
Incident on Calgary's Reconciliation Bridge comes to safe resolution
Nearly 20 hours after a man climbed and remained perched on top of the Reconciliation Bridge in downtown Calgary, the situation came to a peaceful resolution.
Sunshine list: These were the Ontario public sector's highest earners in 2023
Ontario released its annual sunshine list Thursday afternoon, noting that the largest year-over-year increases were in hospitals, municipalities, and post-secondary sectors.
George Washington family secrets revealed by DNA from unmarked 19th century graves
Genetic analysis has shed light on a long-standing mystery surrounding the fates of U.S. President George Washington's younger brother Samuel and his kin.
'We won't forget': How some Muslims view Poilievre's stance on Israel-Hamas war
A spokesman for a regional Muslim advocacy group says Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's stance on the Israel-Hamas war could complicate his party's relationship with Muslim Canadians.
Why some Christians are angry about Trump's 'God Bless the USA' Bible
Former U.S. President Donald Trump is officially selling a copy of the Bible themed to Lee Greenwood’s famous song, 'God Bless the USA.' But the concept of a Bible covered in the American flag has raised concern among religious circles.
Local Spotlight
Conservation officers seize 9-foot python from Chilliwack home
B.C. conservation officers recently seized a nine-foot-long Burmese python from a home in Chilliwack.
N.B. man wins $64 million from Lotto 6/49
A New Brunswicker will go to bed Thursday night much richer than he was Wednesday after collecting on a winning lottery ticket he let sit on his bedroom dresser for nearly a year.
Ontario auto-insurance changes could leave some vulnerable, says expert
The Ontario government is introducing changes to auto-insurance, but some experts say the move is ill-advised.
Tipping is off the table at this Toronto restaurant
A Toronto restaurant introduced a surprising new rule that reduced the cost of a meal and raised the salaries of staff.
A tiny critter who could: Elusive Newfoundland Marten makes improbable comeback
Newfoundland’s unique version of the Pine Marten has grown out of its threatened designation.
Ontario man loses $12K to deepfake scam involving Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
A Toronto man is out $12,000 after falling victim to a deepfake cryptocurrency scam that appeared to involve Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Record-setting pop tab collection for Ontario boy
It started small with a little pop tab collection to simply raise some money for charity and help someone — but it didn’t take long for word to get out that 10-year-old Jace Weber from Mildmay, Ont. was quickly building up a large supply of aluminum pop tabs.
'I was just like, holy cow!': Saskatoon dumpster divers reclaim wasted valuables
There’s a group of people in Saskatoon that proudly call themselves dumpster divers, and they’re turning the city’s trash into treasure.
Ontario to balance budget ahead of 2026 election, citing delay due to 'economic uncertainty'
Ontario is facing a larger than anticipated deficit but the Doug Ford government still plans to balance its books before the next provincial election.