How a Harris or Trump win could impact Canada-U.S. trade
As we move closer to the U.S. election, CTVNews.ca will be examining the relationship between Canada and the U.S. in a series of features.
Canada's economy is intricately tied to the U.S., with nearly 80 per cent of all exports going to its neighbour. While Donald Trump's first presidency upended trade relations, U.S. President Joe Biden has overseen a return to relative stability. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, however, has been a vocal critic of North American free trade pacts like the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and its predecessor, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
"No matter who is the U.S. president in 2025, Canada's economy would be affected by a trade protectionism, just to different degrees," Carleton University political scientist Aaron Ettinger told CTVNews.ca. "Either way, Canadians will need to be alert."
The current USMCA trade agreement is up for review in 2026 and both presidential candidates have vowed to renegotiate and press for changes. Here's how a Trump or Harris presidency could impact cross-border trade and Canada's economy:
Trade disrupted under Trump
Donald Trump's 2016 to 2020 presidency was a rollercoaster for Canada-U.S. relations. The countries' typically stable trade partnership was shaken by Trump's push to replace the NAFTA continental free trade agreement, and the imposition of hefty tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel during negotiations.
"Trump's attitude towards protectionism and tariffs goes back decades so it came as no surprise that he waged economic war with enthusiasm during his presidency," Ettinger said. "I would expect a 2025 Trump presidency to return to that pattern with greater aggression."
The new USMCA agreement that went into effect in 2020 also contains a unique review clause, and by its sixth anniversary on July 1, 2026, the U.S., Mexico and Canada will have to confirm in writing if they wish to extend the pact. If any country wants to tweak the trade agreement, it will spark a lengthy review process.
"That would be 2026, right in the middle of the next presidential term, and in a mid-term election year where many candidates for Congress – left and right – will be eager to show their commitment to the American worker," Ettinger said. "Should Trump win, I would expect him to reopen or threaten to reopen USMCA at that time."
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets U.S. President Donald Trump at Winfield House in London on Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2019. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick)
Trump recently vowed to revisit the agreement, which was trumpeted as a better deal for the U.S. and a victory for his administration. Speaking on Oct. 10, Trump said he wanted to better protect and promote the U.S. auto industry.
"I am announcing today that upon taking office, I will formally notify Mexico and Canada of my intention to invoke the six-year renegotiation provisions of the USMCA that I put in," Trump told the Detroit Economic Club. "We have a great deal now. What we have to do is make it much better even, and we'll be able to do that very shortly."
On the campaign trail, Trump has also promised to impose 10 per cent tariffs on all imports into the U.S., and 60 per cent tariffs on goods from China, without mentioning any exceptions.
"Trump can do quite a bit as president through executive orders," Ettinger said. "Canada could be excluded but it will take heroic diplomatic efforts on Canada's part to find the carve outs."
"We've done this before," the prime minister told reporters after Trump's USMCA announcement. "We did it by standing up for Canadian jobs, for demonstrating how integrated – in the case of the United States – our economies already are, and we are ready to do it again, if necessary."
Trudeau and his team have also argued that tariffs and protectionist measures against Canada would hurt American jobs as well.
That stance is supported by a recent Scotiabank analysis, which said 10 per cent tariffs and equivalent retaliation could aggravate inflation and lead to a 3.6 per cent decline in economic activity in Canada, and a 2.2 per cent decline in the U.S.
"Were Trump to implement the more controversial elements of his platform, namely the imposition of tariffs on all U.S. imports and the effective launch of a trade war… we would also expect substantial economic impacts in the United States and its trading partners," the report warned.
Harris opposed NAFTA and replacement
Relations and trade between Canada and the U.S. have been comparatively stable under Biden.
"Joe Biden also has protectionist leanings, though his are less explicitly hostile to Canada," Ettinger explained, citing U.S. electric vehicle rules and subsidies as an example. "Biden's purpose is not punitive though. His purpose is to use U.S. regulatory power to raise labour and environmental standards."
Harris opposed many Trump tariffs when she was a senator from California between 2017 and 2021, but she was also one of only 10 U.S. senators to vote against the new USMCA agreement, which passed with overwhelming bipartisan support in January 2020.
Joining the likes of Senators Bernie Sanders and Chuck Schumer, Harris argued the agreement didn't do enough to tackle environmental issues.
"I have concluded that the USMCA's environmental provisions are insufficient – and by not addressing climate change, the USMCA fails to meet the crises of this moment," Harris said at the time.
Like Trump, Harris has also said she would reopen USMCA as president.
"As one of only 10 senators to vote against USMCA, I knew it was not sufficient to protect our country and its workers," Harris wrote on social media in September. "Many who voted for this deal conditioned their support on a review process, which, as president, I will use."
Vice President Kamala Harris talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the balcony of the Eisenhower Executive Office building on the White House campus, Thursday, Nov. 18, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
In a May 2019 interview, Harris said she would have also opposed the original NAFTA agreement, which Biden voted for as a senator in 1993.
"I would not have voted for NAFTA, and because I believe that we can do a better job to protect American workers," Harris told CNN. "I also believe that we need to do a better job in terms of thinking about… issues like the climate crisis and what we need to do to build [them] into these trade agreements."
Harris has not said if she would reopen USMCA as president, but has been known to shift and soften her positions.
"The Harris-Walz campaign is still vague on trade policy details, but I doubt it will be different from Biden’s in relation to the green economy, energy policy and more," University of Ottawa political scientist Srdjan Vucetic told CTVNews.ca.
Having graduated from high school in Montreal, Harris has direct ties to Canada. So does her running mate for vice-president, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, whose state shares an 885-km border with Ontario and Manitoba. Canada is also Minnesota's largest customer, buying approximately US$7 billion in goods in 2023.
In a 2020 Canada Day message, Walz said Minnesota's relationship with its northern neighbour encompasses everything from trade to tourism.
"It is true that Canada and Minnesota share a border, and are therefore inherently bonded, but our friendship extends much deeper than that," Walz said in a video posted online by the Consulate General of Canada in Minneapolis. "Our relationship extends from private sector investments by Canadian companies that employ thousands of Minnesotans, to Minnesota-based companies that have invested across Canada."
Who's better for Canada?
“Between Walz and Harris's background in Canada, these are two people that will have a good understanding of the relationship between the two countries," Western University U.S. politics specialist Matthew Lebo told The Canadian Press.
Former U.S. ambassador to Canada Bruce Heyman says a Harris and Walz win would also be a victory for Canada.
"You've got the best team for U.S.-Canada relations, in the Harris-Walz team, and maybe the best team that has existed, maybe, since Obama-Biden, where I worked as the U.S. ambassador," Hyman recently told CTV News. "This is clearly significantly better than the Trump team."
Vucetic, a professor in the University of Ottawa's graduate school of public and international affairs, says that while Canada can expect protectionist agendas from both the Republican and Democratic nominees, a Harris presidency would ultimately be better for Canada.
"Today, Democrats make promises to protect jobs and wages on a daily basis, and Kamala Harris cannot be an exception," Vucetic said. "Whoever gets to sit at the Resolute Desk in 2025 will seek to reinvigorate U.S. manufacturing and cement Buy American practices, and the challenge for Canadian policymakers will be to seek and secure various exceptions and exemptions for Canada."
This story has been updated with new statements from both presidential candidates.
IN DEPTH
Jagmeet Singh pulls NDP out of deal with Trudeau Liberals, takes aim at Poilievre Conservatives
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pulled his party out of the supply-and-confidence agreement that had been helping keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberals in power.
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Joe Biden pardons son Hunter Biden of gun, tax charges, despite promising not to
U.S. President Joe Biden announced Sunday that he pardoned his son Hunter Biden on gun, tax charges, despite previous promises that he would not do so.
Canada Post presents union with 'framework' to reach deal as strike continues
Canada Post has presented the union representing some 55,000 striking postal workers with a framework to reach negotiated agreements, the corporation said.
'Devastating': Missing Surrey, B.C. teen found dead, family says
The family of a missing 18-year-old, who was last seen in Surrey over a month ago, says there has been a tragic end to the search.
The best tips to prepare your car for the winter
Slippery or snow-covered roads, reduced visibility and bitter cold are all conditions that can make driving difficult and even dangerous during cold weather months. CAA spoke with CTV Morning Live this week on some of the best ways you can winterize your car.
PM Trudeau 'surprised' provinces unanimous on accelerated defence spending: Ford
Ontario Premier Doug Ford says his fellow provincial leaders are united in pushing for Canada to meet its NATO defence spending targets ahead of schedule, and that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was "surprised" to hear it.
Stellantis CEO resigns as carmaker sales continue to slump
Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares is stepping down after nearly four years in the top spot of the automaker, which owns car brands like Jeep, Citroën and Ram, amid an ongoing struggle with slumping sales.
'Wicked' star Marissa Bode speaks out against 'harmful' ableist comments made about her character
'Wicked' actress Marissa Bode posted a video on TikTok asking for kindness after receiving ableist comments on social media.
Poilievre calls for asylum seeker cap, border plan as U.S. tariff threat looms
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has demanded the federal government present a plan before Parliament to beef up border security as U.S. president-elect Donald Trump threatens to impose stiff tariffs on Canada.
Emergency crews battle large fire at Kitchener, Ont. townhouse complex
Waterloo Regional Police say Kingsway Drive will remain closed as emergency crews continue to battle a large blaze at a townhouse complex.
Local Spotlight
Auburn Bay residents brave the cold to hold Parade of Lights
It was pretty cold Saturday night, but the hearts of those in a southeast Calgary neighbourhood warmed right up during a big annual celebration.
Three million grams of cereal collected to feed students in annual Cereal Box Challenge
The food collected will help support 33 breakfast and snack programs in the Greater Essex County District School Board.
Regina's LED volume wall leaving Sask. months after opening
Less than a year after an LED volume wall was introduced to the film world in Saskatchewan, the equipment is making its exit from the province.
Temperature records broken, tied following latest snowfall in Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan received yet more snow as winter continues to ramp up on the prairies. With the increased precipitation, communities have recorded dipping temperatures – with a handful breaking or tying longstanding records.
'My dear Carmel': Lost letters returned to 103-year-old Guelph, Ont. woman
A young history buff was able to reunite a Guelph, Ont. woman with letters written by her husband almost 80 years ago.
'We have to do something': Homeless advocates in Moncton reaching out for help over holidays
Twice a week, Joanne and Jeff Jonah fill up their vehicle full of snacks and sandwiches and deliver them to the homeless in downtown Moncton, N.B.
100-year-old Winnipeg man walks blocks to see his wife
It's considered lucky to live to be 100, but often when you hit that milestone, you're faced with significant mobility issues. Not Winnipeg's Jack Mudry. The centenarian regularly walks five blocks to get where he wants to go, the care home where his wife Stella lives.
Video shows B.C. cat bursting through pet door to confront raccoons
Several hungry raccoons were chased off a B.C. couple’s deck this week by one over-confident house cat – who was ultimately lucky to saunter away unscathed.
Trailer Park Boys host Canadian premiere of new movie in Dartmouth
Sunday night was a big night for the Trailer Park Boys, as Ricky, Julian and Bubbles hosted an advanced screening of their new movie in Dartmouth, N.S.